Advertisement (Want to get this briefing by email? Here’s the sign-up.) Good morning. The latest on Brexit talks, the mysterious man behind Italy’s largest party and new ethical questions for Jared Kushner. Here’s the news: • Prime Minister Theresa May rejected a draft E.U. proposal on the future status of Northern Ireland as a threat to Britain’s “constitutional integrity.” Brussels suggested that Northern Ireland will effectively remain in a customs union with the bloc after Brexit, unless other solutions are found. This would create a new economic frontier within the United Kingdom. Mrs. May is set to meet the European Council president, Donald Tusk, today and give a policy speech on Friday. Our correspondent looked at the possible scenarios. _____ • Davide Casaleggio may be the most powerful man in Italy, yet few people know who he is. Critics say he controls the votes, the candidates and the policies of the Five Star Movement, the party that is leading in polls ahead of national elections on Sunday. Mr. Casaleggio runs the party’s web platform, meant to be a tool of direct democracy in which all clicks were created equal. But in addition to concerns about his influence, a hacker claimed to have manipulated votes on the platform. _____ •President Trump stunned many Americans by embracing elements of gun control: expanded background checks, keeping guns from the mentally ill and restricting sales to some young adults. Two of the largest retailers said they were stopping gun sales to anyone under 21, regardless of local laws. Our reporters found that a private equity group and a bank had meetings with Jared Kushner in the White House. Both made large loans to his family’s real estate business, raising ethical questions. And Hope Hicks said she would resign as White House communications director, a day after acknowledging that she sometimes told white lies for Mr. Trump. _____ • The U.S.-led campaign to hunt down the last pockets of ISIS militants in Syria has lost its most effective fighters. The Kurdish leaders of the Syrian Democratic Forces have diverted to the northwestern city of Afrin to take on Turkish troops, leaving their Syrian Arab and U.S. allies to battle remnants of the Islamic State. _____ • Why do we identify with millions of strangers, just based on borders? In days of resurgent nationalism, it’s worth remembering that patriotism is a relatively new idea. In a video, our Interpreter columnists turn to social science and Sylvester Stallone to explain why the myth of national identity was invented and where it’s headed. And in an Op-Ed, a German journalist suggests revisiting an alternative notion of belonging: “Heimat.” It’s often translated as home, native land or homeland, but none of those words capture its true meaning. _____ • Expect disruptions to continue in some parts of Europe as a cold front from Siberia crosses the Continent. On the streets of London, our reporter met stranded commuters and at least one French tourist who was unimpressed by the snow. “These Brits are so dramatic,” she said. Business• Germany is weighing whether to tighten the rules on when an investor needs to disclose holdings, after China’s Geely surprised markets by revealing its $9 billion stake in Daimler. • The U.S. is in talks with other countries about what it would take to rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Meanwhile, China has sent a high-level envoy to Washington to pre-empt a trade war. • Spotify, the music streaming service, filed to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange. It chose an unusual process in which no new shares are issued. • Flying taxis may be years away, but much of the groundwork, laid in part by Airbus, is accelerating. •Here’s a snapshot of global markets. In the News• The Turkish writer Ahmet Altan, jailed for life over charges of involvement in a failed coup, received yet another prison sentence, this time related to an article he wrote. From his cell on the outskirts of Istanbul, he shared his thoughts in an Op-Ed: “I will never see the world again.” [The New York Times] • Most of the roughly 90 people who drowned when a boat capsized off Libya’s coast in February were Pakistani migrants. Our reporter visited a tiny Punjabi village that was rocked by the distant tragedy. [The New York Times] • Germany’s ministries of foreign affairs and defense were said to have been infiltrated by the same Russian hacking group that breached Democratic Party servers in the U.S. [Reuters] • The publication of a last, unfinished article by the murdered Slovak journalist Jan Kuciak prompted the resignation of high-ranking government officials. [The New York Times] • A bill in Iceland that could make it a crime to circumcise infant boys for nonmedical reasons is drawing support from doctors, and criticism from religious leaders. [The New York Times] • A British tabloid cited a questionable “estimate” that U.N. personnel had sexually abused 60,000 people. It is a cautionary example of how flawed statistics can be. [The New York Times] • The police in Norway are investigating two forged Nobel Peace Prize nominations for President Trump. [The New York Times] Smarter LivingTips, both new and old, for a more fulfilling life. • Recipe of the day: Pair your morning tea with maple scones. • If your marriage is in a rut, try these “love hacks.” • “Smart” items may have more features, but sometimes the original is better. Noteworthy• Paris Saint-Germain, the French soccer club, confirmed that its star player Neymar will have surgery in Brazil on his fractured foot. Such injuries can lead to a lengthy absence. • There are now more tattooed women than men in the U.S. A growing number of female tattoo artists cater to them. • The Danish city of Aarhus offers all the hygge and Nordic cuisine you expect, along with one of the most exciting design scenes on the Continent. • Bordeaux may be known for its grandiose chateaus and aristocratic landowners, but small family farms in its sleepy village of Pomerol produce equally magnificent wines. • You may have heard that Barbra Streisand cloned her dogs. For $50,000, you too can clone yours. Back StoryIt has been called “the toughest job you’ll ever love.” The Peace Corps got its start on this day in 1961, established under an executive order by President John F. Kennedy. The idea to send American volunteers around the world to assist with development projects and to promote the image of the United States existed in various forms after the end of World War II. But it was during a campaign stop at the University of Michigan a few weeks before he was elected president that Kennedy asked a crowd of students, “How many of you who are going to be doctors are willing to spend your days in Ghana?” Kennedy would repeat that call to service a few months later during his inaugural address, when he urged Americans to “Ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country.” The Peace Corps has not been without criticism: Richard Nixon said it was a haven for draft dodgers, and, more recently, the organization has faced questions about the health and safety of its volunteers, particularly women. But after initially operating in only a handful of countries, the Peace Corps has sent more than 230,000 volunteers to 141 nations. Chris Stanford contributed reporting. _____ Your Morning Briefing is published weekday mornings and updated online. Check out this page to find a Morning Briefing for your region. (In addition to our European edition, we have Australian, Asian and U.S. editions.) Sign up here to receive an Evening Briefing on U.S. weeknights, and here’s our full range of free newsletters. What would you like to see here? Contact us at [email protected]. Advertisement
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Failing to strike a Brexit deal would put "hundreds of thousands" of jobs in the car industry at risk, MPs have said. The Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee said continued close alignment with the EU would ensure the industry's survival. And it warned the introduction of trade barriers would leave the sector unable to compete with its European rivals. The government said it wanted a deal that maintains the industry's strength. In a report published on Thursday, the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Committee said the UK car industry was largely export-led with Europe as the primary market. The sector's success was built on "complex supply chains" that stretch throughout Europe, it said. If trade barriers were erected after Brexit, it could cost the sector upwards of £4.5bn in lost exports, the committee said. Jobs and inward investment worth "hundreds of millions of pounds" would also be lost. 'Damage limitation'The committee said it was "unrealistic" to think new trade deals could offset the damage of a "hard Brexit", whereby Britain left the single market and the customs union and began trading with the EU as if it were any other country, based on World Trade Organization rules. And it said any form of divergence with the EU would come with costs for carmakers, urging the government to focus on "damage limitation" in its talks with the bloc. "There is no credible argument to suggest there are advantages to be gained from Brexit for the UK car industry," Rachel Reeves MP, chair of the BEIS Committee, said. "Regulatory consistency and friction-free trade benefits car companies, consumers and car-workers. "The Prime Minister now needs to ensure common-sense pragmatism prevails and spell out the Government's intention to seek continued regulatory and trading alignment with the EU in the automotive sector." Continued confidenceDespite the car industry's concerns about Brexit, a string of big manufacturers have committed to building more vehicles in Britain since the EU referendum. In November 2016, Nissan announced plans to build the next generation of Qashqai and X-Trail sports utility vehicles at its Sunderland factory, while BMW has said it will assemble its electric Mini in Oxford. On Monday Toyota said it would make its next generation Auris hatchback at its Burnaston plant in Derbyshire, protecting 3,000 jobs. The government has also pledged to support the competitiveness of the UK sector after Britain leaves the EU, and has invested £20m in Burnaston alongside Toyota. In a statement, BEIS said the industry was an "incredible success story... supporting almost half a million people in high-skilled, well-paid jobs". It added: "The government is seeking a partnership that delivers the maximum possible benefits for both the UK and EU economies, and maintains the strength of our world-leading automotive sector. Good for consumers?"From production to distribution, numerous companies in this sector around the UK and Europe are highly dependent on each other which is why we must ensure cross-border trade is as free and frictionless as possible post-Brexit." Patrick Minford, chair of the Economists for Free Trade group, formerly known as Economists for Brexit, said: "The car industry... opposes free trade which would involve strong competition from other world suppliers currently kept out of the UK market by high EU trade barriers. "However gains from free trade will bring big benefits to UK consumers, lowering consumer prices by 8% and boosting GDP by around 4% by raising competition and productivity." Read again Brexit: No deal would be 'hugely damaging' to car industry : http://ift.tt/2Fak4fITheresa May will meet top EU official Donald Tusk on Thursday, 24 hours before a major speech on British relations with the bloc after Brexit. Her talks with the European Council president come amid tensions over the EU's draft withdrawal treaty. Mrs May has said the EU's proposals on Northern Ireland threaten the UK's constitutional integrity. The EU says the UK needs to come up a workable alternative to their proposals - which it describes as a "backstop". Mrs May, due to chair a meeting of the cabinet before her talks with Mr Tusk, has already pledged not to accept the draft treaty as it stands. The treaty proposes a "common regulatory area" after Brexit on the island of Ireland - in effect keeping Northern Ireland in a customs union - if no other solution is found. Both the EU and the Irish government say it is up to the UK to come up with concrete alternatives to what they describe as a "backstop" option. Mrs May has said "no UK prime minister" could ever agree to a proposal that would create a customs and regulatory border in the Irish Sea and that she would make that "crystal clear" to EU officials. Speaking on the BBC's Newsnight programme, veteran Eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash said there were "technical ways" of managing the Irish border and accused the EU of trying to create a "constitutional crisis" for the UK. Cabinet ministers have suggested Friday's speech will give the EU the clarity that it has been seeking about what kind of trade relationship the UK wants after its departure on 29 March 2019. In an apparent concession to the EU ahead of the speech, the government said EU nationals coming to the UK during a transition period after Brexit, expected to last two years, would get indefinite leave to remain. 'A la carte'Mrs May has said her long-term goal is a "bespoke economic partnership", underpinned by a comprehensive free trade agreement guaranteeing tariff-free access to EU markets for British goods and services. But her predecessor Sir John Major warned on Tuesday that an "a la carte entrance" to the European market was not possible if the UK left the single market and customs union - which Mrs May is committed to doing. Losing existing trade advantages, he said, would make the UK a less attractive place for inward investment and could put 125,000 jobs at Japanese firms at risk. Conservative Brexiteers have criticised Sir John's intervention, in which he held out the possibility of another referendum on the final deal, one describing it as "un-statesmanlike" and full of "cheap comments". But the message will be reiterated by former Labour prime minister Tony Blair later in a speech in Brussels. He will call for the public to have a "real choice" while urging the EU to put forward new ideas to address "genuine underlying grievances beneath the Brexit vote, especially around immigration". In a new report, the Commons Business Committee warned failure to reach any kind of deal would be potentially calamitous for the car industry and only close alignment with the EU would ensure its survival. But on Tuesday the industry received a vote of confidence when Toyota said it would build the next generation of its Auris hatchback at its Burnaston plant in Derbyshire, safeguarding more than 3,000 jobs. Read again Theresa May to meet Donald Tusk ahead of Brexit 'end state' speech : http://ift.tt/2GS7r6kThere is nothing good to come from exiting the European Union for the U.K. auto industry, leaving the government only one option: limiting the damage. That’s the view of an impact assessment from the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee published Thursday, which urged Prime Minister Theresa May and her cabinet to take a "pragmatic" approach to negotiations with Brussels. The report, arriving amid a hardening of positions in the talks with the EU, comes after opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn raised the dangers of a hard Brexit for carmakers. “There are no advantages to be gained from Brexit for the automotive industry for the foreseeable future,” according to the report compiled by 11 cross-party lawmakers. “The negotiations are an exercise in damage limitation. The government should acknowledge this and be pragmatic.” The auto industry has been a key topic of debate post-Brexit due to its reliance on tariff-free trading to allow components to travel in and out of the country in the manufacturing process. The U.K. employs nearly 1 million people in the sector either directly or through supply chains and the industry makes up 13 percent of all goods exported from Britain, the second highest from any one sector, according to the report. Among lawmakers’ chief concerns is the introduction of a 10 percent tariff on U.K. exports and imports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, which might shift production away from Britain. Profit margins are small, between 2 and 4 percent, and tariffs could make some U.K. manufacturing unsustainable. The committee also said it could find no upside to breaking with EU regulations and recommended the government tries to preserve the existing framework. Since October, Vauxhall Motors has announced 650 job cuts at its factory at Ellesmere Port, while Jaguar Land Rover is also planning U.K. production cuts, citing Brexit as a factor. Investment from Japan, which has been key for the British car manufacturing industry over the last 40 years, may also be under threat. The Asian country’s U.K. ambassador warned last month that "no private company can continue" if profitability falls away. In a more optimistic move this week, Toyota Motor Corp. said it will retain a plant in Britain as the sole European producer of its Auris hatchback. "There are signs now that the continuing uncertainty is affecting investment decisions" and will cost auto-industry jobs, according to the BEIS report. The lack of clarity “is harmful to U.K. businesses and will drive away investment for as long as it persists." — With assistance by Alex Morales Read again UK Auto Sector's Only Brexit Option Is Damage Control, Report Says : http://ift.tt/2Fdeb1uThe European Union's (EU) Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has warned Britain must hurry up if it wants to reach a deal over its divorce from the bloc before 2019. The EU called on Britain to hasten its Brexit negotiation plans shortly after it published the first public draft of a withdrawal treaty on Wednesday. The bloc said it hopes an agreement can be made within about eight months. Speaking at a press conference in Brussels, Belgium, Barnier said: "If we wish to make a success of these negotiations... we must pick up the pace." The treaty, which was based on interim discussions in December, seeks to outline the terms of Britain's departure from the bloc. However, one particular flashpoint in the draft — which has prompted anger in Belfast — concerns the protocol regarding a so-called "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Barnier said Northern Ireland must remain within the EU's current rules and regulations post-Brexit. He also underlined this "backstop" agreement had been reached with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May at the end of last year. May's coalition ally in Northern Ireland, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), has long criticized this protocol, saying it could create new divisions between it and the rest of the U.K. The DUP has also threatened to revoke its support to Westminster over its concerns of a physical infrastructure being imposed on the Irish border. The legally-binding text comes just days before May is scheduled to make her most eagerly anticipated speech on Brexit since last year. However, when May was asked to respond in parliament on Wednesday, she said her government wanted to reach an agreement with the EU that allowed London to have control over its own laws, borders and money post-Brexit. May also reaffirmed the U.K. government's position that it did not want a deal that resulted in a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The European Union is to publish a legal draft of its Brexit withdrawal agreement with the UK. Here's what to watch out for. It's the first draft of historyThis document turns the political pledges made by both sides in December when the prime minister made an early-morning trip to Brussels into the kind of water-tight legal language found in a typical EU treaty. So it is not going to be light reading. But it is historically significant because it will eventually become the document that seals the UK's departure from the EU. This is Barnier's versionIt has been prepared by the European Commission's Task Force 50, led by chief negotiator Michel Barnier. The 27 remaining EU countries have the right to make changes but Mr Barnier has been working within a framework set by them so it should reflect what they want. Commission officials say they just wanted to get a move on and get some text on the table. Read the Ireland section carefullyThree possible options have been agreed for preventing a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Option A is a future relationship between the UK and the EU that avoids the need for a border. Option B is that unique solutions - like technology - are found to solve the issue. Option C is that Northern Ireland remains aligned with EU rules in a number of areas. C is the one that gets most attention in the text but the EU has bent over backwards to say that the other two options are still viable… as long as the UK provides more information about them. It hasn't been agreed with the UKThis document is a basis for negotiations with the government. There are some areas where the two sides have not reached agreement yet and so some of the wording will reflect an EU-only position. For example, Brussels says that the European Court of Justice should oversee the Brexit treaty. Therefore the document refers to the ECJ. The UK doesn't agree. They will have to reach a compromise. Its really longThe draft is more than 120 pages long and contains 168 paragraphs (called "articles" in the EU jargon). It contains several annexes and protocols - sections that appear outside the main body of the text. These count just as much. For example, the UK's original opt-outs from European Justice and Home Affairs policies, the Euro and the Schengen Area are contained in protocols added to end of the EU's main treaties. This is all about divorceThe treaty settles the terms of the UK's exit. The EU says that the shape of the future relationship with Britain will be spelled out in a political declaration to be agreed later in the year and to be attached to the Brexit Treaty. Talks about that won't begin until April at the earliest. Read again How to read the draft Brexit treaty : http://ift.tt/2F8Bl94U.K. consumer and business confidence was muted in February as Brexit obscured prospects for economic growth. GfK said its measure of household sentiment slipped this month, with consumers less willing to splash out and feeling less optimistic about the economy. A separate report on Wednesday by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation showed that confidence in hiring and investment decisions has fallen to the lowest since the referendum to leave the European Union in 2016. Uncertainty about Britain’s future trading relationship with the EU is weighing on investment and job growth even as a faster global expansion brightens the outlook for trade. The Brexit vote’s impact on the pound is still being felt as the weaker currency keeps the inflation rate high and diminishes shoppers’ purchasing power. “Consumers feel pessimistic about the state of household finances and the wider U.K. economy,” said Joe Staton, head of experience innovation at GfK. “Despite positive news about upgraded growth forecasts, and the promise of higher wage increases this year, confidence will remain subdued until we feel the positive impact on our purses.” A separate measure by the Centre for Economics and Business Research and YouGov showed that while consumer confidence rose a bit this month, it’s still well below pre-referendum levels. There are also signs that uncertainty has caused some companies to retrench, even with the stronger global backdrop. Payments firm WorldFirst said the percentage of small and medium-sized businesses trading internationally halved in 2017. Some measures point to optimism, however. A Lloyds Bank report showed businesses’ confidence in the economy remained solid in February, and overall sentiment so far this year is higher than in the fourth quarter. With businesses seeking clarity, the outlook hangs largely on the negotiations between Prime Minister Theresa May’s government with the EU. After an initial deal in December, the prospect of a battle over Britain’s post-Brexit transition period is looming, meaning the U.K. is at risk of missing a crucial end-March deadline for an agreement. Read again UK Confidence Subdued as Brexit Keeps Outlook Under Cloud : http://ift.tt/2BUUzwM[unable to retrieve full-text content] Hello. Here's your morning briefing: Danger warnings as more heavy snow forecastIt's still snowing - and it's not stopping for a while yet. The Met Office has put amber warnings - meaning a possible risk to life and property - in place for parts of Scotland, north-east England, the East Midlands, the east and south-east of England, and London. Three people died following a crash in Lincolnshire on Tuesday, while one man died in a crash in Cambridgeshire. There are warnings of treacherous conditions on roads, with disruption expected on the rail network. The BBC's Laura Lea looks at why cold weather forces cancellations. Hundreds of schools have been closed too. The Met Office says up to 40cm (15in) of snow could fall in northern England and Scotland over Wednesday and Thursday. Snow drifts and lightning - particularly in coastal areas - could create extra hazards. Gaze upon some wintry scenes from around the UK. And find out how cold it is in your area. NI questions as Brexit legal draft publishedThe future of the Irish border looks certain to be one of the main talking points when the European Commission publishes a legal draft of the Brexit withdrawal agreement for the first time later. The document is expected to say Northern Ireland might have to continue following EU single market rules if it wants to avoid a "hard" border with the Irish Republic. Downing Street's already dismissed the possibility of a hard border - and the DUP says it will withdraw support for Theresa May's minority Conservative government if the Irish Sea becomes a trade border. BBC political correspondent Iain Watson writes that "there is plenty of political friction, as every potential solution seems to bring a new problem". Get news from the BBC in your inbox, each weekday morning Toys R Us and Maplin on brink of collapseToys R Us's UK stores and the electronics retailer Maplin are facing possible collapse - putting 5,500 jobs at risk. The chains, among the country's best known, have left administrators on standby after failing to secure a rescue deal. Maplin's owner, Rutland Partners, put the business up for sale, but talks with a potential buyer are understood to have broken down. Toys R Us was also seeking a possible sale but has failed to secure a buyer. Snowmageddon! How weather got rebrandedBy Duncan Middleton, BBC Newsbeat If you want a good story, you need good characters. That's why 2015 could be seen as a deal-breaker. That's when the Met Office started giving names to UK storms. "Once you give something a name, you give it a personality, people become invested in it," explains Peter Moore, author of The Weather Experiment. For example, "Beryl's smashing everything in her path" is far more emotive than "It's rather windy outside". "Beast from the East? It's absolutely brilliant," says Peter. What the papers sayA photograph of a giant snow cloud above London is featured on the front pages of the Daily Mirror, the Daily Express, Metro, the Daily Star and the Guardian. The Daily Express warns that the "killer freeze" is set to worsen, while the Guardian reports that an Arctic heat wave is shifting blizzards on to Europe. The Daily Telegraph has a more upbeat photo - of children out on their sledges. And the i says up to 15 pro-EU Conservative MPs are prepared to defy Theresa May in a Commons vote on the customs union. Daily digestWrongful convictions Evidence not being disclosed on daily basis, say lawyers Harassment claims Labour activists urge Corbyn to take action GP services Satisfaction levels at lowest level since records began, says survey Conservative U-turn Where did all the Trump-haters go? If you see one thing todayIf you listen to one thing todayIf you read one thing todayThe 'exorcism' that turned murderous Lookahead10:00 The world's first plastic-free aisle is unveiled at an Amsterdam branch of the Dutch supermarket Ekoplaza. 12:00 Theresa May faces Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and other MPs at Prime Minister's Questions. On this day1991 US President George Bush announces a ceasefire in the Gulf War, after Iraq accepts all 12 resolutions passed by the United Nations. From elsewhereThe afterlife of Pablo Escobar (New Yorker) Consider the fruit fly (The Atlantic) Five lost cities of the world (Guardian) 13 of the most infuriating people at airports (Daily Telegraph) Read again News Daily: Big freeze worsens and EU sets out Brexit plan : http://ift.tt/2CoigipAlex Barker in Brussels The first full draft of Britain’s historic EU exit treaty will be unveiled by Brussels on Wednesday, erasing many diplomatic ambiguities that have helped cushion the politics of Brexit. Through 120 pages of dense legal prose, the European Commission will lay out exactly what it thinks has been agreed — and what it still wants to be agreed — on the terms of Britain’s withdrawal in 2019. From a protocol on the future status of Northern Ireland to an open-ended role for European judges, clause after clause will confront Westminster with awkward political decisions. For Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, such choices must be faced to avoid having talks stagnate further. For British negotiators, these are precisely drafted political “grenades” launched into the House of Commons. How Theresa May’s government responds will be critical, not just to the shape of a divorce deal but to the pace at which negotiations can progress on a transition and future relationship. 1 NORTHERN IRELANDThe “protocol” on Northern Ireland is by far the most politically charged section of the draft. Mr Barnier described it as “rendering operational” a fallback plan, agreed in December, to avoid a hard border by maintaining “full regulatory alignment” between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Officials who have seen the draft say it lays out in clear terms what a regulatory border would look like “along the Irish Sea”. In practice, Northern Ireland would remain under the EU’s customs union and within important parts of the single market. It would need to follow rules enforced by EU institutions and judges. Such arrangements would imply customs checks between Northern Ireland and the UK mainland, and a distinct legal order for the province, which would in large part be hitched to the EU and the Republic of Ireland rather than to Brexit Britain. That would give European Commission and European Court of Justice authority to enforce EU law on UK sovereign territory after Brexit. Several annexes spell out the scope of EU law covered. At a minimum, officials say, it includes customs union codes, goods regulation, phytosanitary standards for plants and electricity market rules. One EU diplomat described such an outcome as “shock therapy” for London and a nightmare scenario for many cabinet ministers and the Democratic Unionist party, which Mrs May relies on for her governing majority. Diane Dodds, a Democratic Unionist party MEP, said it was “an absolutely intolerable interference in the internal affairs of the UK”. For the political fallout to be contained, the language describing alternative scenarios will be crucial. These include finding a border solution through a UK-EU trade deal or through “specific” arrangements for Northern Ireland, such as novel technology or regulatory models. Although Brussels remains sceptical, Mr Barnier accepts such alternatives could “supersede” the fallback plan, and would be worked in on parallel once the UK made proposals. More encouraging language in the draft treaty may provide some political cover for British ministers. 2 BACKSLIDINGBritain’s dilemma is that a robust response to the Irish protocol may set back the entire Brexit negotiation. British officials see the commission’s draft as an unwise, provocative and partial interpretation of the divorce deal the two sides agreed in December. The text is expected to omit compromise language used on that occasion, including the UK’s pledge to ensure any solution did not create “new regulatory barriers” between Northern Ireland and the mainland. So-called “full alignment” will be defined in terms the UK appears to reject. But if London simply refuses to accept the EU’s interpretation, it may fall foul of what Brussels insiders call the “anti-backsliding clause”, or “ABC”. In “guidelines” for Brexit, EU leaders said talks on transition — which the UK wants to be agreed by the end of next month — and trade “could only progress” if the UK turns divorce commitments into legal texts in a “timely” manner. “This may be tested this week,” said an EU diplomat. The EU27 feel they have leverage: one ambassador in Brussels said Mrs May “desperately needs” a transition agreement in March and will pay a high price to save her government. The challenge for Mrs May will be to calibrate a response that satisfies her Democratic Unionist allies, while not ruling out a fallback plan of “full regulatory alignment” for Northern Ireland. One negotiator involved in talks said it would take “amazing gymnastics”. 3 EUROPEAN COURTSThe continued writ of the European Court of Justice after Brexit will be a recurring theme through the text, much to the annoyance of Brexiters. British negotiators secured some restrictions on the role of European judges in the divorce settlement, but only with regard to citizen rights. The commission intends that the Luxembourg court, much loathed by Eurosceptics, will still have jurisdiction over other parts of the agreement for an indefinite period. Most significantly, this will include making it the ultimate arbiter of disputes relating to the withdrawal treaty, which could take decades to execute fully. In other areas the UK would be required routinely to follow ECJ rulings, potentially many years from now, as the financial settlement is discharged and legacy competition cases are followed through. The draft may make concessions to the UK, including allowing UK to appear at the ECJ in treaty-related cases. Some EU diplomats accept there may be some further room for compromise. Unlike the Irish border questions, the ECJ issues were also never fully agreed in the December “joint report”. That may make London feel at more liberty to make its displeasure clear. 4 EXTENSION CLAUSEOne of the most contentious issues in Brussels was whether to include a clause to allow the transition to be extended — it is pencilled in to end on December 31 2020. Various options to include an extension mechanism were studied. But these are expected to be omitted from the text, for a mix of tactical and legal reasons. Britain is asking for a longer transition of “around two years”. But since London has declined to propose a specific end date, Mr Barnier sees the UK as all but asking for an “open ended” arrangement. Partly for this reason, the EU27 are planning to take a tough position and leave the decision on an extension clause until later in the process. 5) OTHER BUSINESSThe 168 paragraphs of the agreement mix provisions agreed in detail with the UK — such as the financial settlement — with a host of subjects where talks have barely made headway. One contentious issue is the 400 year Anglo-Spanish dispute over Gibraltar. Last year the Spanish government won a formal veto over the provisions of any future EU-UK deal that would apply to the territory. Wednesday’s text is expected to renew such a commitment. But EU negotiators expect the issue to come to a crunch late this year, when Madrid feels it has most leverage. Other continuing disputes range from intellectual property rights to the ownership of civil plutonium at Sellafield and the authority of UK regulators to carry on certifying products after Brexit. British officials will worry that the EU’s starting point for a negotiation may be taken too literally by businesses planning for Brexit. Read again Brussels primes political 'grenades' for Brexit divorce text : http://ift.tt/2oxuoos |
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