It is not possible to see how the Irish border issue can be resolved after Brexit, the influential group of MPs scrutinising the process has said. The government wants no hard border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland and no customs border between the latter and the rest of the UK. Ministers have suggested technology could enable a "frictionless border". But the Committee for Exiting the EU said the proposals were "untested" and "to some extent speculative". 'Customs partnership'Northern Ireland will be the only part of the UK to share a land border with an EU member state after the UK leaves. There is currently no physical infrastructure on the border but there is concern that this will have to change after Brexit. If the UK leaves the EU's single market and customs union, as the government intends, the Irish border will become the external border for the EU's single market and customs union. The Irish Republic wants Northern Ireland to keep following EU rules, so that goods can continue moving across the border - in effect, staying within the customs union and single market. But this would effectively push the customs border out into the Irish Sea, becoming an internal customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK - which the UK government rejects. In its report, the Exiting the European Union Committee says it does not see how it will be possible to reconcile these positions. The government has put forward two proposals, one using "technology-based solutions", such as pre-screening of goods and trusted trader schemes, to reduce the need for customs checks at the Irish border. The other would involve a "customs partnership", with the UK leaving the single market without introducing an EU-UK border - something the UK has admitted would be "challenging". The committee is urging the government set these proposals out in more detail. DUP warningUK Prime Minister Theresa May has said the UK and Irish governments "have the same desire" on the border - to ensure that the movement of trade and people continues "as now" and that no new barriers are created. The government added that it remained "absolutely committed to finding a solution that works for the people of Northern Ireland and Ireland". The Irish government has always insisted there must not be a hard border between the Republic and Northern Ireland, with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar saying he must have written assurance from the UK before Brexit talks can move on. But Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has warned that any attempt to "placate Dublin and the EU" could lead to the end of its confidence-and-supply agreement with the UK's Conservative government. The DUP struck a deal with the minority Conservative government in June, agreeing to support Tory policies at Westminster, in return for an extra £1bn in government spending for Northern Ireland. The Committee for Exiting the EU itself was split over the report, with five of its 21 members - four Conservatives and a DUP MP - voting to reject it. The report also includes a call for the government to publish the likely terms of any transition period governing what will happen immediately after Brexit in March 2019. It says it is "essential" that the details of the arrangements be published by the end of March so as to give businesses enough time to prepare. It adds that any deal reached on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and vice versa should not be dependent on getting the so-called Brexit divorce bill or the Irish border issue agreed. Read again Irish border: Brexit committee says solution doubtful : http://ift.tt/2ix5x4q
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The boss of Italian bank Unicredit has deemed Brexit and its potential disruption to the capital's ranking as a major financial hub "much ado about nothing". Jean Pierre Mustier, Unicredit's chief executive told the Financial Times Banking Summit today that regulators are likely to find sensible solutions to any problems posed by Brexit, meaning there was unlikely to be a "big revolution" when it came to the setup of the continent's banking. And London "will remain an important centre for expertise", he added. "Let's just be calm," Mustier said. Read more: London retains crown as top spot for attracting business and talent Much has been made about banks' contingency plans and to what extent Britain's departure from the bloc will prompt job moves from London to elsewhere in Europe. Mustier's perspective though, echoed comments made by the Bank of England deputy governor Sir Jon Cunliffe. Cunliffe said last month that while some job moves could well take place, the capital's financial centre crown was unlikely to be displaced. "It may be that some activities that are carried out in London have to move to the continent," he told the Western Mail. "And maybe some activities carried out in London no longer become efficient, and rather than moving to the continent, they just go back to New York or somewhere else, or maybe they don't happen at all." "But I don't see London as a financial centre being replicated on the continent anytime soon as it takes an awful lot of critical mass of expertise and knowledge," he added. The bank has been preparing for a possible "no deal" Brexit and has required firms to submit contingency plans for such a scenario. This week, Britain's major banks were given the thumbs up by the Bank of England's annual stress tests, providing a relatively positive account of their resilience - even if faced with a difficult Brexit scenario. Read more: London won't be replicated as a financial centre, says BoE deputy governor Read again Unicredit boss brands Brexit "much ado about nothing" and says London will retain standing as key financial hub : http://ift.tt/2irPJjt[unable to retrieve full-text content] [unable to retrieve full-text content]
Net migration is estimated to have fallen by nearly a third to 230,000 in the year to June, new figures show. It is the first time that a full year of data has been available since the UK voted to leave the EU last June. The figure is still short of the Conservatives' target to reduce net migration to the "tens of thousands". Net migration is the difference between people coming to the UK for more than a year, and the number of people leaving the UK for a year or more. In this 12-month period, 572,000 people arrived in the UK, and 342,000 emigrated, the Office for National Statistics report showed. Immigration specifically fell by 80,000 people over the year - and three-quarters of that drop was down to fewer EU citizens coming to live in the UK, figures showed. Nicola White, head of migration statistics at the ONS, said: "The decline follows historically high levels of immigration and it is too early to say whether this represents a long-term trend." She pointed to figures showing the number of people coming to the UK for a definite job has remained stable but those coming to "look for work", especially EU citizens, was down 43%. "These changes suggest that Brexit is likely to be a factor in people's decision to move to or from the UK - but decisions to migrate are complex and other factors are also going to be influencing the figures," she added. The ONS said the 106,000 fall on the previous year's net migration figure was the largest annual decrease recorded. This was substantially down on its high of June 2016 and now at similar levels to 2014, the ONS said. The figures also showed:
BBC home affairs correspondent Dominic Casciani said there was a combination of factors at play. "Anecdotally you pick up the fears around the Brexit effect," he said. But the economic effects and the falling value of the pound might also be a factor, for example a Polish worker would get six zloty for every pound earned before Brexit. That's fallen by a quarter since the referendum, he added. The Conservatives' aim since 2010 has been to reduce net migration to below 100,000. The pledge to reduce net annual migration to the "tens of thousands" was in the 2010, 2015 and 2017 Tory manifestos. Neither Prime Minister Theresa May nor her predecessor, David Cameron, have come close to meeting that target. Read again Net migration falls by more than 100000 after Brexit vote : http://ift.tt/2BzsUPmUK immigration latest: Net migration falls by more than 106000 after Brexit vote as EU citizens flee11/30/2017 [unable to retrieve full-text content] Sign up to receive the Brexit Bulletin in your inbox, and follow @Brexit on Twitter. With four days to go, talks over the Irish border are going downto the wire. Prime Minister Theresa May needs to find a way to promise the EU that there won’t be a hard border dividing Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, once that 300-mile line becomes the U.K.’s new EU frontier after Brexit. She needs to please Dublin and avoid alienating Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which props up her government in London. And she needs to do it by Monday. European officials suggest May simply could reiterate commitments to the Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to Ireland after decades of violence. But Ireland is insisting on a written commitment that makes sure regulations on each side of the border won’t diverge significantly after Brexit, one official said. Keeping the same rules reduces the need for a border in Ireland but could mean setting up a border between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain. Ireland’s European Commissioner Phil Hogan was upbeat on Wednesday at the chances of a deal on the Irish issue, which is now the last major obstacle to the start of Brexit trade talks after a rough agreement was reached on how much the U.K. will have to pay the EU to settle its accounts. “In the same way as we have seen movement in the last 24 hours in relation to the financial settlement, I expect that we will see movement in this regard in the next few days as well,” Hogan told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday. “And hopefully we will.” European officials were less bullish in private. One put the chances of an agreement on the Irish issue by next week at 50-50, another at 60-40. The deadline everyone is working toward is Monday, when May has lunch with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels. Brexit Secretary David Davis will most likely travel earlier to Brussels to meet with his counterpart, Michel Barnier, Tim Ross reports. The aim is that their meeting will result in a statement summing up the progress made so far, setting the scene for an amicable May-Juncker meal and a declaration that the negotiations can move forward to trade. Both sides want it all stitched up in good time for the Dec. 14 summit. The Times reports a deal is close and would involve giving Northern Ireland more power locally over areas such as agriculture and energy. And if it all goes to plan? Celebrations over the breakthrough will be short-lived. The really hard part starts when talks get underway about the future relationship, Nikos Chrysoloras writes. “In the U.K., there is an expectation that the [exit] bill offer is conditional and that it will buy a good trade deal, which is not how the EU sees it,” said Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive and chief economist at the European Policy Centre in Brussels. The first obstacle: The two sides have wildly different expectations. The U.K. wants to keep as much of the status quo as possible even as it leaves the club and its rules behind. The EU is offering a trade deal like the one it gave Canada, which is best in class but well short of what the U.K. has now. The U.K. will need to decide what kind of country it wants to be. Does it want to keep rules on things like food and agriculture aligned with Europe or would it prefer to break free? Plenty of Brexit-backers want to take advantage of the split to loosen regulations, even as May pledges it won’t happen. It will be a struggle to get into much detail on trade in the time available. As “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed,” an angry walkout remains a risk. Brexit LatestDefense Dig | Just as relations are reaching a turning point, Barnier enraged British officials on Wednesday with a speech that appeared to suggest that the U.K. was turning its back on European allies in the fight against terrorism. He said the Brexit vote came “after a series of attacks on European soil” and “six months after the French Minister of Defence issued a call for solidarity to all his European counterparts to join forces to fight the terrorism of Daesh.” He went on: “Never had the need to be together, to protect ourselves together, to act together been so strong, so manifest. Yet rather than stay shoulder to shoulder with the Union, the British chose to be on their own again.” The British government has pledged “unconditional” support for its European allies on security and defense, making clear it won’t try to use its military and intelligence clout as a bargaining chip in talks. Tech’s Doing Fine | European startups are on pace to collect a record $19 billion from venture investors this year, despite concerns Brexit will weigh on the region’s technology industry, according to an annual report by the London-based venture capital firm Atomico. The U.K. remains the largest destination for capital invested in Europe, with $5.4 billion year to date, according to the report. Germany follows with $2.5 billion and France at $2.1 billion. The U.K. also held on to its spot as the No. 1 destination for skilled tech workers to migrate to within Europe but ceded some of its share to France and Germany compared with previous years. Case for Optimism | The most senior civil servant at the U.K. Treasury said official forecasts for the economy could prove overly pessimistic if May gets the Brexit deal she wants. Permanent Secretary Tom Scholar said the Office for Budget Responsibility’s assumptions about trade, migration and productivity after Britain leaves the European Union represent a “mid point in the range of outcomes.” If the government achieves a “deep and special relationship with strong economic links” to the EU, “that might be something that would be a surprise on the upside,” he said. “But there is clearly a downside risk as well.” The View From Germany | German Social Democratic Party head Martin Schulz said the U.K. needs to realize the reason it’s Europe’s second-biggest economy and a Group of Seven member is because of free access to the European Union market. Britain’s departure is also a sad warning. “Brexit is a symbolic warning shot that unless we fundamentally reform Europe, further such sad moments will follow,” he said. On the Markets | The pound surged on Wednesday and bond yields rose as investors brought forward expectations of a rate hike. But Bloomberg’s Vassilis Karamanis says option traders got it right when they played down hype that next month’s summit could be a one-stop shop for Brexit solutions and they are now betting the pound’s latest rally will be short-lived. And Finally...Everything has a Brexit angle now, even the royal wedding. Those who voted to leave are more likely to find it unacceptable for a member of the royal family to marry someone of a different ethnicity or religion, according to YouGov. Leavers would also be less accepting of a consort candidate who already has children or is gay. The divisions go beyond the generation gap, YouGov’s Joe Twymann says in a tweet. For more on Brexit follow Bloomberg on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram Read again Brexit Bulletin: Down to the Wire : http://ift.tt/2AIhk7IThe U.K. and the European Union are working against the clock to reach a compromise on the Irish border that will allow a breakthrough in Brexit talks at a key meeting next week. Prime Minister Theresa May needs to find a way of wording a commitment to the EU that Brexit won’t mean a hard border goes up between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland when the 300-mile line dividing them becomes the U.K.’s new frontier with the EU. Her government is talking to Dublin and the Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, to find a solution by Monday -- the deadline all sides are working towards. Reiterating commitments to the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Ireland after decades of violence could be part of the solution, according to four European officials. But Ireland is insisting on a written commitment that goes further, and makes sure regulations on each side of the border won’t diverge significantly after Brexit, one of the officials said. The pound continued to strengthen on Thursday on hopes of a breakthrough in divorce talks, which have shown little progress for months. The Times of London reported that an agreement on the Irish border is close, and the EU will offer a deal on the transitional arrangements that businesses are clamoring for as soon as January. 24 Hours“In the same way as we have seen movement in the last 24 hours in relation to the financial settlement, I expect that we will see movement in this regard in the next few days as well,” Ireland’s EU Commissioner Phil Hogan told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday. “And hopefully we will.” In private some officials were less bullish. The chances of an agreement on the Irish issue by next week are 50-50, according to one European official, and 60-40 according to another. Thanks to the EU and its single market, the border now is virtually invisible, with animals, goods and people crossing it freely. Brexit will mean a border probably has to go up somewhere as the U.K. plans to leave Europe’s single market and customs union, and also plans to strike trade deals with countries such as the U.S. The Times reported that the solution could hinge on giving Northern Ireland more powers locally over customs, energy and agriculture as a way to keep rules the same on each side of the border after Brexit. The U.K. proposal commits it to working to avoid regulatory divergence on the island of Ireland, the paper said. Why Ireland’s Border Is Brexit’s Stubborn Puzzle: QuickTake Q&A Ireland wants no border at all -- for historic, political and economic reasons -- and the EU has adopted the same stance. But no border means keeping Northern Ireland aligned with the regulations that apply in the Republic, and that would effectively mean erecting a border between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain. The Northern Irish DUP considers that a red line and their view is more important than ever as their lawmakers prop up May’s government in London. On Monday, May has lunch with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and is expected to present the formal offer on the divorce bill and Ireland. Brexit Secretary David Davis and his counterpar Michel Barnier may meet beforehand and the aim is to get a joint statement on progress. If all goes well, the EU would make clear that trade and transition talks can start, leaving everything stitched up in time for the Dec. 14 summit. Businesses are desperate for negotiations to start on the transition deal that Britain wants to put in place after Brexit and also for talks to get going on trade -- where the real battle will begin. Now for the Real Fight: Why the Brexit Bill Is the Easy Part — With assistance by Thomas Penny, Peter Flanagan, Patrick Donahue, and Ott Ummelas Read again UK, EU Working on Irish Border Fix as Brexit Crunch Nears : http://ift.tt/2zPgKF5The leader of prominent Irish political party Fianna Fail is optimistic that upcoming Brexit talks will produce some sort of proposal for Ireland regarding its northern border. This marks a starkly different attitude from many other European Union member states and certainly many other Irish politicians. "I think something will come through. I mean, my sense is that there will be progress made. Whether it will constitute a breakthrough or not, I'm not sure yet," Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin told CNBC on Wednesday. "But I know the mood is a bit better than it was two or three weeks ago." Fianna Fail is one of Ireland's top two political parties, and its support has been key to the survival of the minority government of Fine Gael, the party currently heading Ireland's government and to which Prime Minister Leo Varadkar belongs. Both parties are center-right and have their roots in the Irish Civil War. Ireland's government and the EU have made it clear they want specific answers on the Irish border question in the coming days. The border issue separating Ireland from the U.K.'s Northern Irish province has emerged as one of the most intractable flashpoints of the Brexit debate: after 20 years of open borders and trade following the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended the sectarian conflict between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, the U.K. wants to take Northern Ireland out of the EU customs union. Many fear this will mandate the reimposition of a hard border. On whether U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's embattled government in London can provide solutions to these concerns, Martin told CNBC, "I think they can deliver some, I do. And they're going to have to work for them. "We met with (U.K. Foreign Secretary) Boris Johnson some weeks ago, and the British government position up to then was 'trust us'," Martin continued. "Now that's not a base I accept, and I agree with the Irish government on this, and with Leo Varadkar that we cannot just go in blind to the next phase without some clear indication as to the pathway in relation to the border of north and south on the island of Ireland. That's very, very important." After a tense week of political gridlock over the future leadership of deputy prime minister Frances Fitzgerald, a Fine Gael official whose past in politics recently came under intense scrutiny, partisan relations in the Irish government are at a low. Fitzgerald resigned on Tuesday under pressure from both the opposition and her own party, and Varadkar came out of several days of negotiations (which were aimed at protecting Fitzgerald's position) appearing politically weaker. Asked if he had trust in Varadkar after their days of talks, Martin replied: "I think actually in the midst of the crisis, through our discussions, we reached better understandings. But there is no doubt that emotions in both parties are bruised. "But, that said, I think we are clear in terms of the immediate challenge ahead in both domestic issues and in terms of Brexit. And I think we both learned a lot from this particular episode, and that is the key." On whether he stood with the prime minister's perceived hardline approach to Brexit talks and the border question, he said emphatically: "Oh we will of course. The Irish Parliament is at one on this absolutely at one on this. This is an important moment for us." While fractured internally, Ireland's political parties appear united in wanting Northern Ireland to remain in the EU customs union. Martin cited economic concerns when it came to the threat to the customs union, which has for decades allowed tariff-free and seamless trade between the U.K. and Ireland. "It will mean costs, because we're at the border, on our industries as well, and on our small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). So, we're very very worried about it, to be honest." "There was no blueprint for Brexit. And nobody had a roadmap. I think that's probably the greatest failing of the entire initiative," Martin stressed. "Before we make a decision of that seismic scale, you should really do far more due diligence and work out what actually will mean. We're all grappling with it." Martin told CNBC he has put forward a proposal similar to the customs union, which would make Northern Ireland a "special economic zone that would have regulatory convergence with the European Union's customs union and single market." On what he thinks his government can do to limit Brexit damage, Martin replied: "Working with partners in the EU. Try and persuade Britain to have a deal that's as close as possible to the existing Customs Union and single market, essentially a regulatory convergence in terms of standards and so on, that means we can trade on a continuing basis." Ireland's government narrowly averted collapse this week, when deputy prime minister and Fine Gael member Frances Fitzgerald stepped down under pressure from Martin's party. Fianna Fail had tabled a motion of no confidence against her over alleged misconduct in a 2015 whistleblower case. Had she not voluntarily resigned, a successful no-confidence vote would have triggered new snap elections before Christmas, effectively dooming Varadkar's leadership. The resignation, which followed days of talks between Martin and the prime minister, was seen as a victory for Martin. Deep in the English countryside about 12 miles north of Cambridge, hundreds of used tractors are waiting to be snatched up by one of many overseas buyers getting a better bargain because of Brexit. Lured by a weaker pound and good quality of machinery, dealers from the European Union and as far away as Lebanon and Sri Lanka flock to the monthly Cheffins auction held on an area the size of 40 soccer pitches. Sales -- the bulk of which are exported -- have jumped since the U.K. voted to leave the EU, reaching a three-year high in the first 10 months of 2017. “Since the Brexit day and the reduction on the value of the pound, it’s a great buying opportunity for all Europeans to come and buy here,” Bill Pepper, a director at Cheffins, said at the September auction. “We are the only auction to have such a variety of machines, so it’s almost like a one-stop shop.” Sterling is the worst-performing major currency since the June 2016 vote, giving foreign buyers more value for money. From Deere & Co. tractors preferred by Spaniards to Massey Fergusons favored in Asia and Africa, Cheffins’s sales jumped 15 percent this year to October, following even bigger gains in the months after the referendum. Some demand is also from U.K. farmers wary of buying new machines ahead of the exit from the bloc. For non-Brits, the pound’s slide has been good news. At the auction, second-hand goods buyer Hassan Alaywi was looking for an old tractor to fill up the last space in his container bound for Lebanon. He said the lower prices meant he could make any necessary repairs and still make a 20 percent export profit. Harsha Dharmawardene, a Sri Lankan dealer who has bought more than a thousand used tractors in the past 35 years, was also browsing the field of some 300 machines in Sutton. While he wasn’t planning a purchase in September -- a month the pound rallied -- he said he took advantage of lower prices right after the Brexit vote. He usually exports the machines to his home country and fixes them before shipping as far afield as East Africa. Cheffins sold about 30 million pounds ($40 million) of tractors and parts so far this year. The auction can offer good deals: earlier in 2017, a two-year-old John Deere vehicle sold for 56,000 pounds, almost half the cost of a new one. The auctions also attract local buyers. On the back of lower income following several years of falling agricultural prices, U.K. farmers remain cautious of making investments before the impact of Brexit becomes clearer, said Stephen Howarth, an economist at the Agricultural Engineers Association, which tracks new vehicles. “Because farmers aren’t doing particularly well, they have had to source good second-hand machinery and that’s why the second-hand market is very strong at present,” said Cheffins’s Pepper, adding that manufacturers have raised prices for new models. “It’s all about affordability. Most farmers can’t buy, so they have to look at the second-hand market.” While the average farm income in the U.K. jumped 20 percent in the 2016-17 season, it was still 43 percent below 2011-12’s level, government data show. Bumper grain harvests from Brazil to Russia have depressed prices, with a Bloomberg grain index heading for a fifth annual decline, the longest run in data going back to 1991. Read more: Worker exodus begins down on the farm: on Brexit’s front lines Farmers are also feeling the pinch in the rest of Europe, and one Spanish dealer at the September auction complained about delays to EU subsidy payments which have limited farmers’ income in his country this year. About 90 percent of the tractors sold at Cheffins are bought by dealers, who then export most of that, Pepper said. "The weak pound has meant that these exports can achieve better prices in sterling terms while becoming more competitive on export markets, boosting trade-in values and helping to support activity across the market," the AEA’s Howarth said. Read again Brexit Gives New Life to Old Tractors : http://ift.tt/2ilBPPI |
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