BREXIT Secretary David Davis will this week order go-slow Whitehall mandarins to “get ready for Brexit”. And he will say they have run out of excuses. Brexit officials will return implementation plans drawn up by Government departments and insist officials start “delivering” so Britain is prepared in time for March 2019. The push covers domestic policy on everything from customs desks to the type of HGV licences foreign truckers require once we leave the EU. Critically, the shift in approach is designed so the UK can cope in the event of a “No Deal” with the EU, leaving with no trading agreement. It comes a day after PM Theresa May’s New Year vow to “keep up the progress” onBrexit talks this year. A senior source said: “We’re moving from a planning phase to delivery. "We will be removing the excuses some departments have for not being ready. "The intention is to ensure we are ready to deliver Brexit, whatever is negotiated in Brussels.” JEZ HIGHER TAX CALLCorbyn calls for higher taxes, telling Brits 'one day you'll need NHS'DAD'S BARMYAmber Rudd faces ridicule over plans for a 'Dad's Army' to protect UK's portsROBO STOPRobots will scour Facebook for criminal activity in a £2bn benefit fraud blitzBREXIT BLOWDavid Davis says Brexit may NEVER happen despite PM's NYE promise 'to deliver'UNI PAY SHAKE-UPFat-cat university pay will face biggest shake-up for 25 years from Jan 1Mrs May has been warned that business chiefs’ patience over Brexit is “wearing thin”. British Chambers of Commerce director general Adam Marshall said firms want clarity from the Government and suggested industry was dismayed by “division and disorganisation” in Westminster.
0 Comments
DOMINIC LAWSON: How blessed we are that Brexit's enemies are such a deluded comical rabble12/31/2017 By Dominic Lawson for the Daily Mail Published: 19:01 EST, 31 December 2017 | Updated: 20:01 EST, 31 December 2017 New Year political predictions are normally guesswork dressed up as expert forecasts. But there are some developments we can anticipate with near-certainty. For example, it is clear there will be a concerted push by the die-hard opponents of Brexit to de-legitimise the result of the 2016 EU referendum. Indeed, as Theresa May works her way towards some sort of post-membership deal with Brussels, their efforts to block Brexit will become ever more frenetic. We have had a glimpse of what is to come in the past week, with Michael Heseltine once again setting out his determination to 'stop Brexit' and Andrew Adonis resigning as head of the National Infrastructure Commission, to — as he put it — 'oppose the European Union Withdrawal Bill relentlessly from the Labour benches'. Michael Heseltine (left) has once again set out his determination to 'stop Brexit' and Andrew Adonis (right) has resigned as head of the National Infrastructure Commission, to - as he put it - 'oppose the European Union Withdrawal Bill relentlessly from the Labour benches' Those benches are in the House of Lords. Like Heseltine, Adonis is not a democratically elected politician but an appointed Life Peer. Not the least farcical aspect of the anti-Brexit campaign is that it seeks to overturn the biggest exercise in democracy ever undertaken in the UK, led entirely by men who either have tired of the need to win support at the ballot box, or never bothered in the first place. So, who did the anti-Brexit group Best for Britain choose last month to be their figurehead? Lord Malloch-Brown, that's who. Malloch-Brown, who called Brexit 'a betrayal of our country', is a consultant- cum-lobbyist on an epic scale, which includes membership of The Guardian's 'global advisory panel'. But, as that newspaper's own columnist Matthew D'Ancona pertinently observed, Malloch-Brown is 'the very incarnation of what made people vote Leave in the first place'. Revelation This lack of self-awareness on the part of the stop Brexit brigade is almost comically exemplified by Lord Adonis's interview in yesterday's Observer. He revealed that he was in a church in the Austrian village of Alpbach on Christmas Day, when: 'I decided in the middle of mass that I was going to resign. When I was skiing the following day, I started writing the letter of resignation in my mind while looking out over the Austrian Alps.' Can you imagine the predominantly working class Labour voters whom Adonis needs to persuade to back his campaign to block Brexit saying: 'Oh, now we know Lord Adonis has had a revelation while attending Mass in an Austrian church on his skiing holiday, we realise we were wrong to vote to leave the EU'? Nor do I think his remark in the letter he composed while contemplating the Alps — that 'Brexit is a populist and nationalist spasm' — will persuade a single human being who voted Leave that they had been mistaken. Condemning people for being 'populist and nationalist' can only have the result that they respond: yes, and what's your problem? Speaking of masses, Adonis is actually Tony Blair's vicar on earth: he was the former PM's policy advisor at 10 Downing Street and the two continue to be in close contact. Blair, characteristically, has said he feels a 'sense of mission' to block Brexit. Though even that supremely articulate political salesman was reduced to embarrassed incoherence on a platform last May, when challenged by Matthew Elliott (former chief executive of Vote Leave). For your edification, here is the encounter in full. Elliott: 'You have to start accepting the basic principles of what the public has said, and what they said in the referendum.' Blair: 'I mean . . . I think . . . you know . . . whether that is right or wrong, for the moment . . . I think . . . Brexit is obviously a very big issue in many different ways . . . although . . . you know . . . I understand completely what you are saying . . . you may be right in what you are saying.' We'll take that as a yes. The biggest problem for Blair, Heseltine and Adonis — all of whom, not coincidentally, still believe the UK should abandon the Pound and adopt the euro — is that in campaigning to reverse the referendum result they represent a very small minority. Adonis is actually Tony Blair's vicar on earth: he was the former PM's policy advisor at 10 Downing Street and the two (pictured in 2007) continue to be in close contact Most of those who voted to remain in the EU respect the result and just want the Government to get on with it. The pollsters YouGov track this on a regular basis, and most recently found that only 15 per cent thought that Brexit should be stopped and that we should remain in the EU. That is not only because most Britons respect the democratic process, even when it delivers the opposite of what they wanted. And I am not just talking about the Referendum: in last year's General Election, both Labour and Conservative manifestos committed to leaving the EU, and also leaving the European Single Market (of which freedom of movement is an inseparable part). But it is the facts on the ground that have made the stop-Brexit campaign look especially foolish. We have witnessed the demolition of the claims of the Remain campaign that the very fact of a Leave vote would precipitate an economic disaster. (The then Chancellor George Osborne declared that 'immediately following a vote to leave the EU' there would be a recession and the loss of at least 500,000 jobs.) Bitter What actually followed in the year after the vote to leave was continued growth in employment, an increase in the proportion of the workforce in full-time jobs and the lowest recorded figure for the proportion of unemployed among the working age population since 1975. And it now seems that the economy grew by 1.7 per cent in 2017, better than nearly every forecast. This must have come as a bitter disappointment to those wanting to overturn the referendum, who, as Margaret Thatcher's biographer Charles Moore observed last week, are guilty of 'reverse Micawberism: waiting for something to turn down'. The same goes for the newly knighted Nick Clegg, who has just published a book titled How to Stop Brexit. Hilariously, Clegg was in fact the first mainstream party leader to call for an in-or-out referendum on the EU, in 2008. Of course, he thought Remain would win such a vote, and can't get over the fact he was wrong about that. Sir Nick Clegg, Lord Heseltine, Lord Adonis, Lord Malloch-Brown, Tony Blair. Truly, Brexit is blessed in its enemies. Brilliant knock that cooked Pietersen's goose As the former England cricket captain Alastair Cook completed his stupendous innings of 244 not out against the Australians in Melbourne, I couldn't resist turning to the Twitter account of Kevin Pietersen. You see, KP (as he calls himself) had earlier questioned his former team-mate's commitment to the cause: 'It just looks like Cook is not very interested . . . I had spotted it before the series.' Alastair Cook walks off Melbourne Cricket Ground undefeated at the end of play last Thursday In fact, as everyone except Pietersen recognised, there is no one more dedicated to scoring runs for his country than Cook, whose work rate remains unequalled. But Pietersen has never forgiven Cook for being part of the selection committee that ended his own England career (justified not so much by his declining fitness, but because the solipsistic South African emigre was a destructively divisive figure within the team). Perhaps I shouldn't have been surprised, then, that though as insatiable a tweeter as Donald Trump, Pietersen did not have the grace to withdraw his 'not very interested' criticism, let alone to praise one of the great Ashes innings. Instead, on that day, he was tweeting furiously that Emirates Air had left his luggage behind in Dubai, appending 11 red angry emoji faces to emphasise his fury. No wonder Pietersen was in a foul mood. With his innings in Melbourne, Cook had passed the record he had held jointly with 'KP' as the England batsman with the highest number of Test scores of 150 or more. Kevin Pietersen tweeted furiously that Emirates Air had left his luggage behind in Dubai, appending 11 red angry emoji faces to emphasise his fury So, while Cook — the most respected England cricketer of his generation — was modestly waving his bat to acknowledge the acclaim of both English and Australian fans, his would-be nemesis was reduced to impotent rage in the Emirates first class lounge. You might say that both men were getting what they deserved. Video PlayerClose LONDON, Dec. 30 (Xinhua) -- The British economy has benefited from strong global growth in 2017, a situation which has helped it to weather the uncertainties of the Brexit process. Before the referendum in June 2016 that set Britain on a course to exit the European Union (EU), many experts and global financial institutions, for example the International Monetary Fund (IMF), predicted that deciding to leave the 28-nation bloc would not just be harmful to the British economy, but could also set it into recession. Just before the referendum, IMF President Christine Lagarde said the global bank had found "nothing good" to say about Brexit, and predicted a possibility of economic recession. Britain's central bank, the Bank of England (BoE), also warned then that a Brexit vote could set up a recession. At the end of 2017, however, it is clear that the fears of the central bank and the IMF, and of many other commentators and experts, were overblown. The British economy has grown in Q3 2017 by 0.4 percent quarter on quarter and 1.8 percent annually. "This year has been a very strong year for the global economy. 1.8 percent is reasonable but still lagging the eurozone and makes Britain one of the slowest growing of the major economies," Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to EY ITEM Club, a London-based financial data firm, told Xinhua recently. "It's a middle of the road performance really. You would have hoped Britain could have done a lot better, but it could have been a whole lot worse," Archer said. THE EFFECTS OF BREXIT-INSPIRED INFLATION The latest quarterly figures for Q3 show a rebalancing underway in the economy, with consumer spending, the recent driver of economic growth, declining, and trade making a greater contribution to growth. "Growth appeared more balanced," said Archer. "Business investment was revised up to 0.5 percent growth quarter on quarter." He further pointed out that revised figure showed exports up by 0.8 percent, which is "quite a big upward revision to exports," adding that net trade was almost in balance as a result. One thing that the IMF and the BoE were both correct about was that a Brexit vote would lead to a sharp depreciation in sterling, with a resulting rise in inflation. Sterling fell on the night of the Brexit vote from 1.48 U.S. dollars to 1.22 U.S. dollars. Driven by sterling's fall, Consumer Price Index (CPI) was sent into a sharp upward trajectory, making raw materials, imports and supply chain costs more expensive. Inflation is now seen to be near a peak of 3.1 percent according to November figures, with all forecasters predicting its gradual decline over the coming year towards the 2 percent mark which the BoE targets. "Inflation will head back down towards 2 percent by the end of next year, and there will be a gradual pick up in earnings growth. That will help consumers," said Archer. Wages rose 2.5 percent in October, up from an annual growth of 2.2 percent in September, data from the Office for National Statistics showed. Consumers lessened their spending in the earlier part of the year and picked up their spending again towards the end, but the growth is not seen as sustainable by most experts and is forecast to decline next year. "Consumer spending picked up (in Q3) but at the expense of consumers having to dip into their savings," Archer said. While the world economy is seen by many commentators to be in robust shape, the British economy will see inflation likely to continue to outstrip wage growth, and consumers seem likely to respond with reduced rate of growth in spending, though it will ease through the year as inflation eases back, Archer noted. GRADUAL RISE IN BANK RATE The BoE raised interest rates for the first time in over 10 years in November, when it unwound its 25 basis point rate cut from August last year, made to stimulate the economy after the Brexit vote, to take it back to 0.5 percent. The BoE's primary target is to keep inflation at 2 percent, and with the rate now at 3.1 percent and unemployment at 4.3 percent and the number of those in work near record highs, the economy is seen by some to be set for an inflationary period unless rates rise. Amit Kara, head of British macroeconomic policy at the independent London-based think-tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, told Xinhua in a recent interview he expected the bank to hold off a rate increase until May on 2018. "If, as we expect, the economy continues to expand around this pace and inflation remains elevated, there is a case for the BoE to gradually raise the policy rate to stop the economy from overheating," Kara said. "Consistent with that view, our latest forecast for Britain is conditioned on a 25 basis points increase in bank rate every six months such that the policy rate reaches 2 per cent in 2021," he said. HUB OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES With London being a global financial hub, the financial services sector accounts for 7 percent of output, more than 1 million jobs, and 11 percent of annual tax revenues. Having a large financial sector brings substantial benefits, the BoE said in a recent report,and a deep and liquid financial market lowers the cost of finance to households and businesses across Britain and the other 27 EU nations. Britain-based Banks underwrite about half of the debt and equity issued by EU companies, and are counterparty to over half of the over-the-counter interest rate derivatives traded by EU companies and banks. The central bank noted in another report in late December that "fragmentation of the financial sector could increase the cost of financial intermediation, to the detriment of households, firms, and governments in Britain, the EU, and elsewhere." The bank now stands ready to repatriate regulatory functions from the EU if Brexit goes ahead, and signalled in December that it intended to keep markets running and to allow continued access for EU banks with subsidiaries within Britain. Whether the EU reciprocates, and indeed what kind of arrangements it makes for the financial services sector is a key unknown as yet for 2018 with the Brexit negotiations moving into the second phase. "There will be a lot of uncertainties affecting business behavior and holding back investment, although we are moving on to phase two of the Brexit talks and it looks like there will be a transition arrangement agreed next year and that will help investment," Archer said. Read again Yearender: British economy weathers Brexit insecurities : http://ift.tt/2CtruH0Whitehall warned there can be no 'excuses' for going slow on Brexit preparations - including no deal12/31/2017 [unable to retrieve full-text content] Make the most of the festive break, MPs and peers, and recharge those batteries, because 2018 looks set to be another intense, unpredictable year in Parliament and politics. On the legislative front it's Brexit, Brexit, Brexit, as major bills on trade and customs hit the Commons in the first week after New Year, with talk of an Immigration Bill, to set up a new post EU system, an Agriculture Bill to replace the Commons Agricultural Policy and a similar Fisheries Bill not far behind. All of these will have the same generic issue that has hovered over the EU Withdrawal Bill - they have to provide sweeping powers and extensive legislative tools for ministers, so that they can set up a system that has yet to be negotiated. So expect plenty more talk about Henry VIII powers and scrutiny systems as they are debated. Meanwhile there's still a long way to go with the centrepiece of Brexit legislation, the EU Withdrawal Bill. It is due for its Report and Third Reading Stages in the Commons on Tuesday 16 and Wednesday 17 January. Report Stage provides an opportunity for the Government (and indeed anyone else) to revisit issues already debated, so there could be an attempt by ministers to look again at the Grieve Amendment (their only defeat thus far) as well as to address the other concerns of the increasingly well-organised band of dissidents around the former Attorney General. The government has now signalled its acceptance of the Grieve amendment, which locked ministers into enacting the final Brexit terms in a bill. But the prime minister's comments about it, in her appearance before the Commons liaison committee, when she seemed to regard it as some kind of optional extra, have raised anxieties that the government may seek to dodge its requirements in some way - so ministers will be expected to offer reassurance, and the words they use will be studied with lawyerly intensity. Plenty of Report Stage amendments have already gone down, from the official Opposition, the SNP and from the "soft Brexit" wing of the Labour Party, led by the former shadow chancellor Chris Leslie - and more are doubtless being cooked up over the break. As at Committee Stage, the most dangerous offerings will be those from backbench alliances across the parties. Once clear of the Commons the bill heads to the Lords - where Second Reading is expected at the end of January (probably over two days). But the real action will start at Committee Stage, when peers start the delicate legislative dance that will culminate in attempts to amend the bill at Report Stage. Committee Stage is expected to start after the February recess and continue up to Easter, and the Report Stage, which is the most likely moment for attempts to amend, would then take place in the second half of April. Third Reading will follow in mid-May and what could be a very edgy bout of Parliamentary ping-pong towards the end of the month. The Lords is, of course, overwhelmingly pro-EU, but it is also extremely conscious of its unelected status - which means that fears that it would throw the bill out and block Brexit are wildly overblown. That is not to say that peers will not dare pass amendments to the bill; they may well return it to the Commons, loaded with all kinds of booby-traps, all calculated to be awkward for the government whips to overturn. But, oddly, the Grieve amendment which requires a final Brexit Bill to go through the Commons and Lords, once a divorce deal is agreed, may mean that some peers decide that the toughest confrontations (over membership of the Customs Union, Freedom of Movement, etc) can be postponed until an actual deal is before them, and possibly be avoided altogether. That Brexit Bill - which would give Parliament a real opportunity to insist on changes, if it didn't like the deal struck by the government - would need to be ready in October or November, to allow time for any renegotiation that might be required. So the Grieve amendment gives Parliament a chance to exert real control over the Brexit process. And that could mean a serious smackdown, especially if the prime minister can't achieve Cabinet agreement around the terms she extracts from the EU. The key factor here is the level of Tory dissent; and that relies on a number of rather grand ex-ministers being prepared to abandon the habits ingrained over decades of party loyalty, and take a step which could both end their careers and seriously destabilise their party. Membership of the Customs Union might just be a big enough issue to provoke that, but we shall see. Most Conservative MPs are, I think, less interested in the theology of the Brexit terms than in keeping the party show on the road; their instinct will be to hail whatever deal is reached as a triumph, unite around it and move on. The emergence of broad outlines of a deal which gives Britain a two-year transition towards a "Canada Plus" trade deal have rather soothed Tory nerves - as have arch-Brexiteer Michael Gove's comment that the relationship could always be loosened later on... pro-Brexit MPs want, above all, to be sure of getting out on or about March 2019. But the precarious mathematics of the 2017 House of Commons means that there are enough MPs on the soft and hard Brexit wings of the party to make trouble (yes, I know, 'hard' and 'soft' are unsatisfactory terms, but I have yet to find a better shorthand) and it could be that the final terms are dictated by some cross-party alliance. One hardcore Brexiteer suggested to me that a Norway-ish deal might be pushed through the Commons, with 40-50 Conservatives voting against - but with soft Brexit Labour MPs voting with the government. And the consequences of that for Conservative cohesion could be pretty nasty. One intriguing complication is that just as Westminster is processing the Brexit deal, a parallel exercise will be under way in Strasbourg. The Lisbon Treaty requires European Parliament approval for the outcome of Article 50 negotiations to leave the EU, and this will probably involve the Parliament's Constitutional Affairs Committee producing a report and recommendations for MEPs to consider. We could be in for a new and novel form of Euro-Parliamentary ping-pong if the two institutions don't agree on something. There are, meanwhile, plenty of other directions from which trouble could beset the government. One of Labour's successes this year has been to continually hammer away at the issue of universal credit. If the implementation of this mega-reform of the benefits system (supported in principle, across the House) goes awry, hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of voters could be very unhappy. And the chairman of the work and pensions select committee, Labour's Frank Field, who is locked in a Twitter spat with Work and Pensions Secretary David Gauke, is poised to pounce. If the NHS runs into trouble over the winter there is an even more formidable alliance of select committee chairs positioned to demand action - health committee chairwoman Sarah Wollaston and public accounts committee chairwoman Meg Hillier have already made their concerns clear. The state of adult social care and the NHS, the strength of the police and the armed forces are all issues that could do real damage - and on the latter there is a real prospect of a backbench Conservative rebellion if a major cut to capabilities was proposed. Watch out for a backbench debate in the Commons' first week back, where the former shadow defence secretary, Vernon Coaker, a smart parliamentary tactician will propose a motion designed to head off further defence cuts. The state of public services could well rival Brexit as the biggest political issue by the middle of 2018. One barometer of all this may be the 3 May local elections, where a number of city mayoralties and the London Boroughs are the big prizes. Politics is so fluid right now, and MPs are so uncertain of the public mood, that a debacle for either of the big parties could destabilise their leader. A final thought. The centrepiece of the Parliamentary week is Prime Minister's Questions. But for all the instant analysis and faux-drama around this occasion, does it really matter? Neither of the main protagonists seems particularly good at the PMQs game and a series of scrappy points victories by Theresa May over Jeremy Corbyn did not seem to help her, or harm him, at the last election. On a couple of occasions recently, I've heard Conservative MPs saying that Theresa May's latest 'victory' at PMQs shows that the Corbyn surge has peaked and that normal politics is being resumed. That seems like a remarkable denial of recent events, but we will find out how accurate that view is as 2018 unfolds. Read again Here's what's happening with Brexit in Parliament in 2018 : http://ift.tt/2BZgkc1Prime Minister Theresa May said 2018 would be a year of “renewed confidence and pride” for Britain as it confronts the challenges of negotiating Brexit, in her new year message on Sunday. Divorce talks between London and Brussels are set to move on to transition arrangements, trade and security next year as Britain prepares to leave the European Union in March 2019. May said 2017 had been a year of progress for Britain as it struck agreement on its departure bill, Northern Ireland and the rights of EU citizens, in the first phase of Brexit negotiations. Making a success of Brexit is crucial, but it will not be the limit of our ambitions Theresa May “I believe 2018 can be a year of renewed confidence and pride in our country,” the premier said. “A year in which we continue to make good progress towards a successful Brexit deal, an economy that’s fit for the future, and a stronger and fairer society for everyone. “And whatever challenges we may face, I know we will overcome them by standing united as one proud union of nations and people.” However, the British Chambers of Commerce, which represents thousands of firms across the country, warned that business was losing patience waiting for clarity on what will happen once Britain leaves the EU. “That patience is now wearing thin. Businesses want answers,” director general Adam Marshall told The Observer newspaper. “Getting the twin challenges of Brexit and the economic fundamentals right will require leadership, consistency and clarity – after a year in which business has been dismayed by what it sees as division and disorganisation.” May said 2017 had been a year of progress in which her Brexit objectives had been pursued with a steady purpose “Making a success of Brexit is crucial, but it will not be the limit of our ambitions,” she said. May said she wanted a “balanced approach” to public spending, reducing Britain’s debt pile while investing in schools, hospitals and state health care. May said she wanted to sweep harassment from the workplace and “eliminate all prejudice and discrimination from our society”. Internationally, she said Britain would work to tackle extremism, climate change and plastic waste in the oceans. Meanwhile opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the prospect of a “new Britain” was “closer than ever before”. “We are a government in waiting, while the Conservatives are weak and divided and stuck in an outdated rut,” the veteran leftist said. Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable used his new year message to push for a second referendum on EU membership. “There’s still time to offer people the choice of an exit from Brexit,” he said. Read again May: Brexit progress in 2018 will renew British pride : http://ift.tt/2CtYuix
LONDON —
Prime Minister Theresa May said 2018 would be a year of "renewed confidence and pride" for Britain as it confronts the challenges of negotiating Brexit, in her New Year's message out Sunday. Divorce talks between London and Brussels are set to move on to transition arrangements, trade and security next year as Britain prepares to leave the European Union in March 2019. May said 2017 had been a year of progress for Britain as it struck agreements on its departure bill, Northern Ireland and the rights of EU citizens, in the first phase of Brexit negotiations. "I believe 2018 can be a year of renewed confidence and pride in our country," the premier said, "a year in which we continue to make good progress towards a successful Brexit deal, an economy that's fit for the future, and a stronger and fairer society for everyone. "And whatever challenges we may face, I know we will overcome them by standing united as one proud union of nations and people." However, the British Chambers of Commerce, which represents thousands of firms across the country, warned that business was losing patience while waiting for clarity on what will happen once Britain leaves the EU. "Businesses want answers," director general Adam Marshall told The Observer newspaper. "Getting the twin challenges of Brexit and the economic fundamentals right will require leadership, consistency and clarity — after a year in which business has been dismayed by what it sees as division and disorganization." Vow on harassment, prejudice May said 2017 had been a year of progress in which her Brexit objectives had been pursued with a steady purpose. "Making a success of Brexit is crucial, but it will not be the limit of our ambitions," she said. The prime minister said she wanted a "balanced approach" to public spending, reducing Britain's debt pile while investing in schools, hospitals and state health care. May also said she wanted to sweep harassment from the workplace and "eliminate all prejudice and discrimination from our society." Internationally, she said Britain would work to tackle extremism, climate change and plastic waste in the oceans. Meanwhile, opposition Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn said the prospect of a "new Britain" was "closer than ever before." "We are a government in waiting, while the Conservatives are weak and divided and stuck in an outdated rut," the veteran leftist said. Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable used his New Year's message to push for a second referendum on EU membership. "There's still time to offer people the choice of an exit from Brexit," he said. Read again May Says 2018 Brexit Progress Will Renew British Pride : http://ift.tt/2Cs0aciAnyone who tells you they know how Brexit is going to play out in 2018 isn't to be trusted. After last year's rollercoaster, almost anything could happen. Another general election? A big shift in the public mood? Both are possibilities - perhaps unlikely, but not to be ruled out entirely. The only predictable thing is unpredictability. And among both arch-Brexiteers, and ardent Remainers, there is a sense that it is still all to play for. But the government insists that the UK will leave the EU on March 29 2019, and in the meantime Brexit negotiations will gather pace. Welcome to phase two. What next?So what is supposed to happen next? First of all, the joint EU-UK report on "sufficient progress" needs to be turned into a legal text that will form the basis of a formal withdrawal agreement. And there are still plenty of details that remain unresolved. Expect the debate about what "full alignment" at the Irish border really means to re-emerge at regular intervals. TransitionAt the end of January, formal negotiations are also due to begin on a transition period after Brexit. The EU's position is that the transition has to take place under all existing rules and regulations (including budget payments, the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and the free movement of people), and that it should come to an end on 31 December 2020. No-one in the UK seems entirely happy about the transition proposals. Many businesses say it won't be long enough for them to be ready for a new world after the UK leaves. On the other hand, many supporters of Brexit say the transition will leave the UK as a "vassal state" - following rules without any say in making them. The futureEither way, the idea of a transition suggests that you know where you are heading. But the debate on the "end state" of Brexit has barely begun. Prime Minister Theresa May is likely to give another big speech on Brexit - perhaps in early February - which may give us further clues about what the UK actually wants. But first she needs to reach some sort of consensus within her own cabinet. Does the UK stick as close as possible to the EU after Brexit, to try to preserve current economic links? Or does it forge a new path on its own? The best of both worlds may not be on offer. But formal negotiations on the outlines of a future relationship - on trade, security and so on - are not expected to start until April. RatificationIt will be, says the European Council President Donald Tusk, a "furious race against time". The EU wants to have the withdrawal agreement (including transition arrangements), and a broad political declaration about the future relationship (NOT a full trade deal), finalised by October. That will give time for the withdrawal agreement to be ratified in full before the UK leaves in March 2019. It needs the approval of a qualified majority of the remaining 27 EU member states, as well as simple majorities in the UK and European parliaments. Until those votes are cast, no-one can say for sure that the withdrawal agreement will be successfully concluded. So Brexit will continue to take up an enormous amount of political time and energy throughout the year. Anyone hoping for certainty should probably look away now. Read again What next for Brexit in 2018? : http://ift.tt/2zS3Ml4[unable to retrieve full-text content] [unable to retrieve full-text content] |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. Archives
November 2018
Categories |