shouts the UK’s Telegraph. And it goes on to claim that the European Union would lose more than twice as many jobs as Britain after a hard Brexit, mainly due to the imposition of tariffs on goods and services trade between the UK and the EU.
This is quite a claim. If true, it would make the EU’s refusal to discuss trade until “sufficient progress” has been made on other issues look like the most foolhardy kind of brinkmanship. Surely, this new research must mean the EU will change its stance? The term “hard Brexit” means a no-deal Brexit. The Telegraph assumes that if no trade deal is agreed between the EU and the UK before March 29, 2019, trade between them after that date would be on World Trade Organization terms. However, even “reverting” to WTO terms is not straightforward. The WTOs “Most Favored Nation” (MFN) rules require WTO members to apply the same tariff schedules to all other WTO members with which they do not have free trade agreements or other permitted deviations from the rules. The WTO explains that this establishes a level playing field for international trade. Thus, it would not be possible for the EU to retain zero tariffs on imports from the UK after a hard Brexit without breaking WTO rules. After a no-deal Brexit, EU member states would be forced to impose the EU’s standard WTO tariffs on imports from the UK, considerably increasing the cost of those imports for purchasers in the EU. The UK’s position is rather more complex. Currently, the UK does not have its own WTO tariff schedules, since its trading relationships with countries both within and outside the EU are governed by EU rules. Defining and agreeing the UK’s new WTO schedules is a crucial task that must be done before Brexit, otherwise there will be no WTO rules to revert to. It seems likely that the UK will simply adopt the EU’s WTO schedules, at least to start with. If it does, then it will have to impose tariffs on some imports from the EU. However, some keen Brexiteers argue that the UK should unilaterally adopt a zero-tariff policy. The cost of introducing tariffs where currently there are none would be considerable, according to the Telegraph:
Doesn’t something strike you as odd about these figures? Yes, you’re right. The Telegraph’s figures do not agree with its headline. In a hard Brexit, the UK would suffer a much larger drop in GDP than the EU. The number of jobs lost would be smaller in the UK, but then the UK’s population is far smaller – 63m as against the EU’s 500m. So job losses as a proportion of total population would be far higher. Contrary to the Telegraph’s headline, the UK would be hit much harder than the EU, though the absolute losses would be larger for the EU. ">“Hard Brexit will hurt EU more than Britain, warn university researchers,” shouts the UK’s Telegraph. And it goes on to claim that the European Union would lose more than twice as many jobs as Britain after a hard Brexit, mainly due to the imposition of tariffs on goods and services trade between the UK and the EU. This is quite a claim. If true, it would make the EU’s refusal to discuss trade until “sufficient progress” has been made on other issues look like the most foolhardy kind of brinkmanship. Surely, this new research must mean the EU will change its stance? The term “hard Brexit” means a no-deal Brexit. The Telegraph assumes that if no trade deal is agreed between the EU and the UK before March 29, 2019, trade between them after that date would be on World Trade Organization terms. However, even “reverting” to WTO terms is not straightforward. The WTOs “Most Favored Nation” (MFN) rules require WTO members to apply the same tariff schedules to all other WTO members with which they do not have free trade agreements or other permitted deviations from the rules. The WTO explains that this establishes a level playing field for international trade. Thus, it would not be possible for the EU to retain zero tariffs on imports from the UK after a hard Brexit without breaking WTO rules. After a no-deal Brexit, EU member states would be forced to impose the EU’s standard WTO tariffs on imports from the UK, considerably increasing the cost of those imports for purchasers in the EU. The UK’s position is rather more complex. Currently, the UK does not have its own WTO tariff schedules, since its trading relationships with countries both within and outside the EU are governed by EU rules. Defining and agreeing the UK’s new WTO schedules is a crucial task that must be done before Brexit, otherwise there will be no WTO rules to revert to. It seems likely that the UK will simply adopt the EU’s WTO schedules, at least to start with. If it does, then it will have to impose tariffs on some imports from the EU. However, some keen Brexiteers argue that the UK should unilaterally adopt a zero-tariff policy. The cost of introducing tariffs where currently there are none would be considerable, according to the Telegraph:
Doesn’t something strike you as odd about these figures? Yes, you’re right. The Telegraph’s figures do not agree with its headline. In a hard Brexit, the UK would suffer a much larger drop in GDP than the EU. The number of jobs lost would be smaller in the UK, but then the UK’s population is far smaller – 63m as against the EU’s 500m. So job losses as a proportion of total population would be far higher. Contrary to the Telegraph’s headline, the UK would be hit much harder than the EU, though the absolute losses would be larger for the EU. Read again There Are No Winners From Brexit, Only Losers, Say University Researchers : http://ift.tt/2yAhBUW
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Theresa May has given away the UK's stance on Brexit and shown Britain does not want to leave the EU in "anything but name", UKIP's new leader has said. Henry Bolton said a two-year transitional period for leaving the EU was "unacceptable" and Britain must be prepared to "get out now". He accused the Tories of deliberately "dropping the ball" as he addressed his party's annual conference. Mr Bolton also said multiculturalism was "swamping" British culture. The former army officer waved a British flag as he took to the stage at the party conference in Torquay to Pharrell William's hit song Happy. He started by asking members whether the UK was any closer to dictating its own borders or concluding trade deals to which he was answered with cries of "no". Mr Bolton told the conference the Conservatives "cannot be trusted" to take Britain out of the EU or even govern the country. "The government, far from offering strong and stable leadership, has proven inept and unable to set and pursue clear strategic goals." He said UKIP had a moral obligation to ensure that Britain leaves the EU and the "fight back starts here today". Earlier this month, Prime Minister Theresa May used a speech in Florence to set out proposals for a two-year transition period after the UK leaves the EU in March 2019. Mr Bolton said she had effectively asked for everything to stay exactly the same as it is. "Far from strengthening the UK's hand in Brexit negotiations, the prime minister's speech in Florence gave it away," he said. "The message she sent was that the UK does not want to leave the EU in anything but name." 'Communities changing'He said a Brexit transitional period was "unacceptable" and Britain must be prepared to leave the EU straight away. "We are getting out of the EU because we care about the future. Leaving the EU is but the first step to taking control of our own destiny." Mr Bolton also told members that multiculturalism was "swamping or displacing our own British culture" and many people saw their communities changing without having a voice in how they were shaped. He said immigration was overwhelming public services and harming "our own culture, traditions and way of life". However, he stopped short of repeating UKIP's 2017 pledge to achieve zero net migration. Earlier he told reporters he would not commit to putting a figure on immigration as it was "entirely unrealistic" and "we need to be a lot more practical and operational about it". Read again Brexit transitional period unacceptable, says new UKIP leader : http://ift.tt/2xQUdFCRuth Davidson has called for "serious people" to carry out the legwork of Brexit negotiations as the Conservative Party gears up for its conference. The Scottish Tory leader told The Times newspaper she believes "over-optimism" about the the future of Britain outside the EU "sells people short". Her comments came as Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson intervened again, setting out four "red lines" over Brexit. He insisted any transition period should not last more than two years. Both interventions are being seen as putting pressure on Theresa May ahead of the Tory conference which begins in Manchester on Sunday. In her interview Ms Davidson took aim at those setting out what she sees as an unrealistic prospectus for Brexit. She said: "I think optimism, positivity is good. I think over-optimism and not recognising that there are practical realities that have to be faced, that have to be worked through and that complexity is not something you just skip over, that you actually have to work through, I think sells people short." Earlier this month, Mr Johnson insisted Brexit would allow the UK to "be the greatest country on earth" and said it would allow Britain to "take back control" of £350m a week of funding that could help the NHS, a figure that has been strongly contested. Questioned about Mr Johnson's message, Ms Davidson told The Times: "I don't take issue with optimism. I am quite often accused of having a kind-of, sort-of have-a-go element about myself as well. "But there is the idea that this is quite hard and it needs serious people to do a lot of legwork and scan the detail to make sure we do get to a place where it will all be OK. "It doesn't just happen by accident, it requires a lot of hard work and it requires application." She also said the £350m funding claim "wasn't a figure I recognised". The Conservative Party conference takes place from Sunday until Wednesday. Meanwhile, Scotland's Europe minister, Alasdair Allan, has said Scotland's relations with Nordic countries will become more important as a result of Brexit. During a visit to Latvia, he cited the Scottish government's baby box scheme - modelled on a Finnish initiative - as a "great example" of a police statement agreed in 2014. He also highlighted other areas where Scotland could benefit from ties with other nations, such as Norway's expertise in carbon capture and storage, Sweden's bottle return scheme and Finland's action to close the attainment gap. Read again Ruth Davidson warns of Brexit 'over-optimism' : http://ift.tt/2kdTw4aBritain must be fully prepared to walk away from the EU without a Brexit deal, new UKIP leader Henry Bolton has said. He said he would like Brexit to be a smooth transition, but stressed negotiations cannot be endless. Mr Bolton said any transitional period for leaving the EU must be brief and the two years proposed by the prime minister was "extremely unwelcome". He accused the government of wasting time and said a plan needs to be in place to leave without a deal. Earlier this month, Prime Minister Theresa May used a speech in Florence to set out proposals for a two-year transition period after the UK leaves the EU in March 2019. Former soldier and police officer Mr Bolton was elected as UKIP leader on Friday - the party's fourth in just over a year. He told Radio 4's Today programme it would be nice if the UK could negotiate a deal but he does not believe it will be achieved. "It is absolutely crucial that this country is fully prepared to walk away because otherwise the EU is going to be negotiating forever on this and they are just going to string us along." He said he wants the UK to impose a short deadline on the EU to talk about a deal and also start putting plans in place to leave without an agreement. Mr Bolton said his idea of Brexit would not see the UK being part of the single market or customs union and would involve a very brief transitional period. The two years proposed by the prime minister was "extremely unwelcome", he added. Mr Bolton said if he was in Downing Street he would be asking people what resources needed to be in place to secure the UK's borders and manage trade if the country left without an agreement. "Unfortunately the government has lost 14 months asking itself those questions which is appalling and we do need we have those pieces in place before we go," he said. Read again UK must be prepared for no deal on Brexit, says new UKIP leader : http://ift.tt/2hDboV9BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Commission has shied away from ranking which cities should host Europe’s drugs regulator and banking authority after Brexit, saying the decision is up to the 27 member states which will remain. The EU executive said its assessment, published on Saturday, was wholly based on the information provided by governments in their bidding war to host the two agencies, which will be forced to relocate from Britain when it leaves the bloc. “It (the assessment) respects the member states’ decision that the criteria should be unweighted and does not provide a ranking or shortlist of any kind,” the Commission said in a statement. Nineteen member states have bid to host the European Medical Agency (EMA) and eight want the European Banking Authority (EBA). The final say on where to move the agencies rests with EU leaders who will try to reach a deal at their next summit in three weeks’ time, with a final decisions a month later. Candidate cities will be appraised based on their ability to have an office ready in time, their accessibility, the quality of schools, healthcare and jobs for the families of staff, and how disruptive the move would be. In their eagerness to host the agencies, some governments have offered tax breaks or rent-free headquarters for the EU institutions - a big break for the bloc’s budget. However, the EU’s need to ensure business continuity could clash with another EU ambition - spreading the bloc’s agencies more evenly across Europe and giving newer, eastern member states a chance to catch up. The EMA on Tuesday warned that it could lose more than 70 percent of its staff, making it unable to function, if politicians pick an unpopular base for the London-based agency once Britain leaves the European Union. Amsterdam, Barcelona or Vienna were the top three choices of staff, according to a survey of around 900 of its workers. All of those cities already host one or more EU agencies. The EMA has said it would take at least three years to recover fully from the disruption to its operations. It sees retaining staff as key to maintaining essential services such as new drug approval and monitoring side effects. Reporting by Alissa de Carbonnel; Editing by Andrew Bolton
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Read again EU declines to rank rival bids for agencies leaving Britain over Brexit : http://ift.tt/2yegPAL
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has again intervened on Brexit, setting out four conditions he says are necessary. Speaking to the Sun ahead of the Conservative party conference, Mr Johnson insisted any transition period after Britain leaves the EU should not last "a second more" than two years. He said the UK should not abide by any new European rules during that time. Meanwhile, Theresa May has pledged to listen to the concerns of young voters following a "disappointing election". As Conservatives gather in Manchester for their conference, starting on Sunday, the prime minister said: "I understand the concerns raised, particularly by young people. "My determination to act on those concerns, and crucially, to fulfil the promise of my first speech on the steps of Downing Street, is greater than ever." Mrs May is seeking to reassert her authority as she goes into her first party conference since she lost her government's majority in the general election. The annual gathering of Conservative members comes after six months of Brexit negotiations in which there has been no significant breakthrough. Mrs May said that, while she was focused on getting the best deal with the EU, she was also committed to making Britain fairer - in particular for the younger generation. But just a week after her major speech on Brexit in Florence, her foreign secretary has again set out his own position. Mr Johnson had previously outlined his "vision" in an article for the Daily Telegraph, which prompted Mrs May to say: "This government is driven from the front." In his interview with the Sun, he called for four conditions for Brexit, which were then described by the paper as his "four red lines":
He says: "The crucial thing I want to get over to Sun readers about Brexit is that it is going to be great and we need to believe in ourselves and believe we can do it. It is unstoppable." Mr Johnson also touches on other subjects in the interview - calling for a faster increase in the minimum wage and for public sector pay rises. Though he dismissed suggestions of any leadership ambitions, his comments are likely to fuel speculation that he is still positioning himself for the top job. While Mr Johnson gives his reassurance that Brexit will be "great" - the Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson told the Times that "over-optimism" about Britain's future outside the EU "sells people short". May 'must be ready to quit talks'Eurosceptic Tory MPs have said the UK should walk away from Brexit talks by Christmas unless the EU shows it is serious about a free trade deal. The Leave Means Leave campaign has urged Mrs May to speed up talks with the EU. The group - which includes ex-minister Owen Paterson - said the PM should not be afraid of a "no deal" scenario.
In their letter to Mrs May, they say: "To delay the end of the transition period until after the projected 2022 general election could jeopardise the entire Brexit programme." Mrs May must make clear that British courts must no longer be bound by European Court of Justice rulings after the moment of withdrawal and that the UK will be free to negotiate, sign and implement trade deals with other countries during the transitional phase, the group argues. The group, which also includes Tory backbencher Peter Bone and former minister David Jones, also ask for clarification on whether the UK will be obliged to abide by new regulations and directives during the two-year period. They are planning to use the party's week in Manchester to put pressure on the prime minister over Brexit, with high profile backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg due to speak on the issue at a Leave Means Leave fringe meeting. On trade, they say the UK should be prepared to tell Brussels by the end of this year it is prepared to default to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules if there is no prospect of "serious" negotiations on a new trade deal. Critics say moving on to WTO rules would result in new tariffs and other trade barriers on exports and imports. But Brexit supporters say it is in the EU's interest, as well as other countries, to give the UK most favoured trading nation status, thus eliminating or minimising the impact of any penalties. Handing the EU an ultimatum, in effect, by the end of the year, they say, would increase the UK's leverage in the remaining talks as well as providing certainty to business. Read again Brexit: Boris Johnson sets out four Brexit conditions : http://ift.tt/2x3YfWU
LONDON — Theresa May will have a one-on-one meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel this morning in an attempt to push for a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations. The prime minister will make the case for talks on Britain's future trade relations with the EU to begin as soon as possible when the pair meet at an EU summit in the Estonian capital Tallinn on Friday, according to multiple reports. May's meeting with the re-elected German Chancellor comes after one-on-one discussions with EU Council President Donald Tusk and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar at 10 Downing Street earlier this week. In her keynote speech on Brexit in Florence last week, May made hinted at a number of concessions that she hoped would be a catalyst for progress in Brexit talks between British and EU negotiators, including on Britain's financial obligations to the EU. The UK prime minister suggested that Britain would be willing to pay €20 billion (£17.6 billion/$23.6 billion) a year in exchange for full access to the European single market during a transitional period. However, May's attempts at persuading the EU to discuss future trade relations have so far been in vain. The EU has repeatedly insisted that talks on future trade ties cannot begin until "sufficient progress" has been made on the divorce arrangements — chiefly Britain's financial obligations, the Irish border, and citizens' rights. On Thursday, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said "important progress" had been made in recent talks with British negotiators, but it has not been sufficient enough for talks to move onto the next stage. He added that the EU recognises "no possible link" between divorce arrangements and the issue of Britain's future relationship with the EU. Barnier said it could still be "weeks or even months" until the divorce issues are settled. The EU Parliament, which will need to approve any Brexit deal, has published a resolution saying not enough "sufficient progress" has been made.
Any deal reached by EU and British negotiators is set to be sent to the Parliament for ratification in Autumn 2018, meaning little over 12 months remains for both sides to thrash out a deal. Despite the uphill challenge facing Britain, Brexit Secretary David Davis was in a confident mood as he addressed the media alongside Barnier on Thursday. "We made important progress and capitalised on the momentum created by the prime minister's speech," Davis said. Barnier said both teams of negotiators will "keep working in a constructive spirit until we reach a deal," and Davis said "it is in all our interests for these negotiations to succeed." Insurers are not known for their reckless risk-taking, but when it comes to Brexit some of them are playing a high stakes game of poker. Brexit creates particular problems for insurers, especially those who have written long-term contracts — pensions for British citizens in Spain, for example, or commercial liability policies written in London for clients in other parts of the EU. These contracts were agreed, sometimes decades ago, under EU passporting rules. These allow financial services companies to provide a wide range of services across the single market while only being legally domiciled in one EU country. But insurers say that if and when passporting disappears from the UK, they will be unable to legally pay out on those policies. The Association of British Insurers says that its members face the choice of breaking the contract or breaking the law. This is not a small matter. Liabilities under these long-term cross-border deals run into billions of pounds. The ABI is concerned. So is parliament’s influential Treasury select committee, which has asked the government to look into the problem. Regulators are also said to be worried. Fortunately, there is an answer via the snappily named Part VII transfer. Here the insurer transfers all those troublesome cross-border contracts into a new or existing subsidiary elsewhere in the EU. That done, it can pay out on the policies as normal. But these transfers are costly, time-consuming and inefficient. “Advisory, regulatory fees and management costs for the largest Part VII transfers can add up to over £1m, and the cost of communicating to customers about the transfer could be many multiples of that,” says Ashley Prebble, a partner at law firm Clifford Chance. He adds that they can take a year or more to complete. To add some spice to the mix, there is also the chance that regulators and courts (which have to approve Part VII transfers) could be overwhelmed with demand as Brexit approaches. “Normally there are about 20 Part VIIs per year but with Brexit — and taking into account that there are 220 UK insurers with outbound EU passports — it could be more than 10 times that number,” says Mr Prebble. “Insurers are worried that there will not be enough capacity to cope with all these applications in time.” Hence the game of poker. Some insurers are pressing on with a Part VII regardless of what happens in the Brexit talks. They say they want to give their customers confidence that they will be able pay claims even if there is no deal. But others are delaying a final decision on a transfer until there is clarity on whether the move is necessary. If, as the ABI wants, the Brexit agreement allows insurers to pay out on the policies, they might not need to go through the rigmarole of a Part VII. But they cannot hang on too long. According to Mr Prebble, they will need to start the process by the end of the year so that everything is in place in the event of a hard Brexit with no deal in 2019. The two-year transition that Theresa May pointed to in her Florence speech would help, says Mr Prebble:
A transition would not solve the problem entirely. The ABI has pointed out that no transition deal is likely to last as long as some of the contracts that will be affected. All of which leaves the insurers nervously watching the final deal talks, the details of the transition and the clock. FT subscribers can sign up here to receive Brexit Briefing daily by email Further readingBrexit talks takeawaysThere was better mood music but little progress in Brussels this week, according to Politico. (Politico.eu) Food for thoughtThe price and availability of food will be the first, and potentially most acute, impact that food shoppers in the UK will feel after Brexit. Andrew Opie of the British Retail Consortium explains why securing a food trade deal with the EU must be a priority. (UK in a Changing Europe) Dexeu BrexodusUp to 20 top civil servants in the Department for Exiting the EU are set to join Britain’s leading Brexit official in the Cabinet Office, raising fresh questions about the influence of Brexit secretary David Davis. (FT) The subversion of BrexitMatthew Parris points out that with two years before departure and another two years’ transition, staying in the EU might seem a good idea. (Spectator) Hard numbersUK economy in worse shape than thought after data revisions
Year-on-year growth in the second quarter was revised down from 1.7 per cent to 1.5 per cent, the Office for National Statistics said, with slower growth than previously recorded in the last three quarters of 2016. Alongside new figures showing that output in the all-important services sector dropped 0.2 per cent in July, the figures point towards a weaker-than-expected outlook in the remainder of 2017. Mark Carney, Bank of England governor, was still talking up the chances of an interest rate rise in coming months before the figures were released, saying: “If the economy continues on the track that it’s been on, and all indications are that it is, in the relatively near term we can expect that interest rates would increase somewhat.” Most economists still think the BoE will raise interest rates from 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent at its meeting in November, but were more cautious following Friday’s data release. Alan Clarke, of Scotiabank, said: “I’m sticking to my call for a hike in November, but I’m much more nervous now than I was prior to this data release.” In a further sign of economic uncertainty, figures released by Nationwide on Friday showed that London house prices fell in the third quarter — the first drop recorded by the building society since the financial crisis. Prices across the country as a whole rose 2.25 per cent. Read the full story here. Read again Insurers' risky Brexit bet : http://ift.tt/2x0gEsHBrexit officials for both the U.K. and the EU have claimed some progress in the latest round of talks – somewhat a change in tone, but only a small step in the right direction given the amount of work that lies ahead. David Davis, the U.K.'s Brexit secretary, told reporters Thursday that negotiators had achieved "decisive steps forward" during the fourth round of talks, including on citizens' rights. EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier nodded in agreement, but added that they aren't yet in a position that allows the discussion of future trade arrangements – set to happen after October. Another stumbling block is the exit bill that the U.K. has to pay. So far, the negotiations have not included this point. "Until now, we have no paper from the United Kingdom about financial commitments that you can negotiate, we do not know a final figure," Elmar Brok, a member of the European Parliament told CNBC Friday. According to Barnier, the talks could drag on for months if there is no agreement on how much the U.K. will have to pay before it leaves the EU. However, Barnier took two positive things from the speech that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May gave last week in Italy. "May said two things," Barnier told reporters Thursday — that no member state should pay more or receive less because of Brexit and that the U.K. will honor its commitments, he said. Speaking to reporters Friday morning in Estonia, May welcomed the progress made. She added that she wants EU citizens living in the U.K. to remain, but she's also looking for guarantees for British citizens living in EU nations. In Brussels, however, officials have complained that it's taking too long for the U.K. government to come forward. "I have the feeling we never know who to talk (to)," Brok told CNBC, saying that the vote for Brexit was made in summer 2016, while the triggering of the legal process to leave the EU only came in March. The U.K. had a snap election in June and there's a Conservative Party conference on the way that could see a leadership challenge. Andrew Hood, former negotiator at the U.K. representation to the EU, told CNBC: "The progress of talks is slow and there are clearly some big stumbling blocks, in particular around the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice." European leaders are expected to discuss the ongoing Brexit negotiations at a summit next month. According to Hood: "Leaders are only likely to note the progress made, stress the need for more progress and say very little else." To escape the current level of uncertainty, tens of thousands more British citizens have asked for citizenship in other EU counties, the BBC reported Friday. Between July 2016 and June 2017, the number of applications more than doubled from the previous year. Ireland has so far received the highest number of applications. Zoran Jerkovic, a Croatian engineer with a sideline growing fruit, might seem an unlikely addition to the Brexit debate. The 50-year-old lives in Metkovic, a town of 16,000 people that became part of the European Union when Croatia joined in 2013. While neighboring Bosnia-Herzegovina remains out, the EU agreed to a system of permits allowing locals unhindered travel across the border. Jerkovic goes back and forth to tend his crop of tangerines. British Prime Minister Theresa May argues that, despite the EU’s hard line rhetoric, examples like this show that the bloc has shown imagination in dealing with tricky border issues in the past and there’s no reason why the Irish question should be different. Keeping open the Republic of Ireland’s 310-mile (500-kilometer) frontier with the U.K. province of Northern Ireland is one of Brexit’s crucial divorce terms. “This kind of border regime seems to me quite applicable to the situation in Ireland,” Vesna Pusic, Croatia’s former deputy prime minister, who signed the law, said. “It’s almost impossible to organize life for people who have jobs, families or fields on the other side of the border any other way.” The similarities don’t end there. The Balkans and Northern Ireland have been theaters of bloody sectarian conflict, the former with the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s and the latter with the “Troubles” between predominantly Catholic nationalists and Protestant unionists starting in the early 1970s. The U.K. and Ireland joined the EU together in 1973 at a time when tit-for-tat bombings were escalating. Border controls largely melted away in the 1990s as both economies were part of the single market and the Good Friday Agreement led to a sometimes uneasy peace. The EU, which still provides aid to Northern Ireland linked to keeping peace, says its frontiers must be respected after Brexit and is pushing the U.K. for solutions to keep the border open. Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s point person for Brexit, last week visited a farm on the Irish border and pointed out that he couldn’t see where one jurisdiction ended and the other started. “Certainly the cows especially couldn’t see it,” he quipped. May counters that there are answers out there. Buried in Britain’s paper on Ireland last month, is a reference to the Neum corridor, a 9-kilometer strip of land in Bosnia and Herzegovina that extends to the Adriatic Sea, splitting the Croatian mainland. The EU agreed to relax some of its rules to allow traffic to flow freely through the area. The hotels in the vast tourist town of Dubrovnik are mostly supplied by trucks taking the 20-minute drive on the one major road through the corridor. Some 90 percent of the goods transported are from the EU, with the more relaxed regime applying to cargoes worth less than 10,000 euros ($11,750). Read More: How Ireland's Border Became a Bigger Brexit Issue Locals living in an area of 5 kilometers or less from the border can get a permit, lasting for as long as five years. It allows them to easily cross back and forth along the frontier, using special routes or designated lanes at ordinary crossings. Another example lies further north on the Baltic Sea. Poland, an EU member since 2004, and Russia allow residents of the enclave of Kaliningrad and the Polish cities of Olsztyn, Elbląg and Gdańsk to obtain special cards permitting repeated travel between the two countries. “The overall point is that, yes, the EU can be quite flexible,” said Katy Hayward, a political sociologist at Queen’s University Belfast. “The EU always carries the advantage of its size and scale, so the external player benefits only if it is willing to be compliant with the EU’s standards and requirements.” That said, easy access is not the same as open access. Croatia had to build new border posts, is still required to perform some checks, and is building a bridge – with EU funds – across a bay in the Adriatic so traffic can avoid entering Bosnia at all. Still, Jerkovic is thankful for the EU’s flexibility. Before the collapse of former Yugoslavia, Metkovic had not seen border checkpoints since the times of the Ottoman empire. “People from both sides of the border have intermingled for centuries,” Jerkovic said. “Marriages are mixed, we have fields and family and graves on both sides.” Read again Brexit and the Balkan Tangerine Farmer : http://ift.tt/2xJF7B9 |
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