I wondered for a moment whether I’d landed at the wrong airport. I returned from a recent visit to Beirut to find London consumed by a debate more familiar to conflict-prone Lebanon than serene Britain. Though I’ve made a few perplexing discoveries about my adopted country since I became a citizen many years ago, few could be more surprising than talk of stockpiling food. I still have memories of hoarding food. It is how you adapt to life when you grow up in a civil war: rice, flour, cooking oil, baked beans, canned tuna, tinned corned beef, all nicely tucked away in a kitchen cupboard. When a ceasefire is called, it is sometimes intended for hurried trips to the grocery store to grab stocks remaining on shelves, often at exorbitant prices. But here we are, in Brexit Britain, in 2018, talking about stockpiling food. I don’t see warplanes flying overhead or bombs exploding. The sun is out and the parks are packed. The simplest and the fanciest food products are a short walk away at Waitrose. Yet we are apparently preparing for war. Not the type of war I am used to, but the result of political feuds and naked ambition that have driven a nation to the brink of self-destruction. The government is planning for a potential Brexit without a deal with Brussels, a crash out of the EU that could lead to shortages of food, medicines and blood. There are reports that the army will be enlisted to help with delivery of essential supplies. According to the BBC, the British sandwich is at risk of being an early victim of supply chain disruption: chicken, lettuce and avocado are all fresh ingredients that could become scarce commodities. Theresa May, British prime minister, says stockpiling is the “responsible” thing to do. Her opponents in the hardline Brexiter camp don’t mind crashing out of the EU and are denouncing “project fear 2.0”. The first “project fear”, you might recall, was the previous Cameron government’s doomsday warnings about the damage Brexit would inflict on the UK economy. The immediate impact of the Brexit vote was exaggerated, but the long-term cost becomes more apparent by the day. Every day is greeted with new warnings from business and more staff and company moves to the continent. Among Europeans I know, the first year after the 2016 EU referendum was a time to reflect, but not to make hasty decisions. No one knew what Brexit meant and many hoped for a second referendum to reverse the result of the first. At the end of this school year, there was no longer doubt about the direction of travel: some European professionals have started to pack up and return to Paris, Madrid and Milan. At least they won’t have to worry about stockpiling. Britain used to be known for order and predictability; it had the appeal of a boringly responsible nation. Since the Brexit vote, it has lurched from crisis to crisis. After two years of incompetence — and confusion over how to comply with the will of the people without committing national suicide — Mrs May has unveiled a plan for a future relationship with the EU. It envisions a customs partnership for goods, a customs union in all but name, and a looser relationship for services. The proposal is possibly unworkable, while hardline Brexiters are determined to scupper it and the EU is not impressed by it. But it’s the best Mrs May could pick from a range of bad choices. Which brings me back to stockpiling. If Britain leaves the EU without a deal on March 29, 2019, major disruptions at UK borders are to be expected. Contingency planning for no-deal Brexit is prudent, though ensuring that it never happens would be more sensible. In Brexit Britain, however, even good intentions are poorly executed: the UK, it turns out, is not prepared for Brexit preparations. As the FT revealed last week, retailers have had no contact with the government over stockpiling food. Nor do they have the necessary warehouse capacity to do it. Much of what we consume is fresh produce, in any case. Perhaps the only planning we can do is to switch to farming — or, more expediently, change our eating habits to ease the shock of a crash. Read again Stockpiling food for a no-deal Brexit? Really? : https://ift.tt/2LI7cl9
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French pharmaceuticals company Sanofi SA SNY 1.00% has been making drug-shortage contingency plans for more than a year to prepare for the U.K. failing to reach a deal with the European Union on Brexit, according to a person familiar with the matter. The move is the latest sign large European companies are worried about the prospects of a hard Brexit, where the U.K. doesn’t reach a deal over its future relationship with the European Union, despite repeated attempts at reassurance from British government officials. A no-deal scenario is expected to result in wide-scale disruption in the EU’s import of products from the Continent, and vice versa. Food, medicine and transport could be affected if no transition period is agreed upon, and jointly agreed regulation would no longer apply. While it has been a possibility since the U.K. voted to leave the EU in 2016, a no-deal scenario has only recently become a more plausible option as talks between the bloc and the U.K. have stalled. Sanofi, which had global sales of about €35 billion ($30 billion) in 2017, of which €850 million were in the U.K., is one of the Continent’s largest insulin producers. The company’s Brexit-related preparations began about a year ago, the person said, adding that its U.K. division began building its stocks about six months after. Stocks have been increased for all therapeutic areas by about four weeks to a total of 14, the person said, excluding medicines that are in constant shortage. The stock for vaccines, of which Sanofi is a large producer, has also been increased where possible. Stockpiling is the accumulation of drugs beyond levels that a company would otherwise deem necessary. Quality control, for which Sanofi sends batches of medicine back to the Continent from its two plants in the U.K., would no longer be possible in the case of a hard Brexit. The person added that some staff reductions to its 1,800-strong workforce in the U.K. would become necessary. There hasn’t been any guidance from the U.K. government in terms of what would be possible or even feasible in case of a no-deal departure from the EU, the person said. Sanofi follows in the footsteps of other major pharma players like AstraZeneca PLC, which said earlier this month that it had increased its stockpile by about a month to protect itself from a disorderly Brexit. The increase, however, represented only a small portion of its total manufacturing. A hard Brexit would affect far more than one industry. The EU has warned that air licenses issued in the U.K. and the EU could no longer be valid for travel in each other’s territories. Legal arrangements that regulate road travel also would no longer apply. A Sanofi spokesman confirmed stockpiling was taking place in the U.K. in preparation of a no-deal Brexit but declined to comment further. He also said the company continued to closely monitor the evolving tariff situation between the EU and the U.S. (Reuters) - French drugmaker Sanofi (SASY.PA) has been making drug-shortage contingency plans for more than a year to prepare for Britain and the European Union failing to reach a Brexit transition deal, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing a source. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Sanofi is pictured during the Viva Tech start-up and technology summit in Paris, France, May 25, 2018. REUTERS/Charles Platiau/File Photo Stocks have been increased for all therapeutic areas by about four weeks to a total of 14 weeks’ supply, excluding medicines that are in constant shortage. The stock for vaccines, of which Sanofi is a large producer, has also been increased where possible, the WSJ report said. Quality control, for which Sanofi sends batches of medicine back to the continent from its two plants in Britain, would no longer be possible in the case of a hard Brexit and some reductions to its 1,800 strong UK workforce would become necessary, the report said. Sanofi’s Brexit-related preparations began about a year ago and its UK division began building up its stocks about six months after, the report added. More than 2,600 drugs have some stage of manufacture in Britain and 45 million patient packs are supplied from the United Kingdom to other European countries each month, while another 37 million flow in the opposite direction, industry figures show. Brexit threatens the free flow of these goods, given stringent medicine regulations that will require the retesting of drugs shipped across borders in the absence of an agreed trading arrangement. The European Medicines Agency has warned drugmakers they needed to be ready for a possible hard Brexit in 2019 and said it had “serious concerns” about preparations in the case of 108 medicines made only in the UK. Earlier this month, British drugmaker AstraZeneca Plc (AZN.L) said it was increasing stockpiles of those medicines in Britain and continental Europe that could be affected by Brexit by around 20 percent. Sanofi did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Reporting by Rama Venkat Raman in Bengaluru; editing by David Stamp
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George Parker in London, Anne-Sylvaine Chassany in Paris and Alex Barker in Brussels Theresa May will urge President Emmanuel Macron this week to soften France’s stance on Brexit or risk a chaotic UK departure from the EU that would cost Europe jobs and stem the flow of finance from London to the continent. The British prime minister will meet Mr Macron at hisFort de Brégançon retreat in the south of France on Friday and urge him to work with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, to back an “unprecedented” EU association agreement with the UK. Downing Street regards France as the biggest obstacle to a Brexit agreement, with ministers privately warning that Mr Macron believes he can extract financial services jobs and investment from London to Paris if he strikes a hard deal. On the other hand, British diplomats believe that Mrs Merkel is willing to soften the EU’s approach after a positive meeting with Mrs May earlier this month. One UK official said the chancellor was ready to give Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, “more freedom” to do a deal. The result has been a dramatic escalation of diplomacy with France, with Mrs May seeking a meeting with Mr Macron on his island home this week. The two leaders will have a working session in the afternoon, followed by dinner. Jeremy Hunt, UK foreign secretary, also met his French counterpart, Jean-Yves Le Drian, in Paris on Tuesday, and Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, will meet the French Europe minister, Nathalie Loiseau, on Thursday. Sajid Javid, UK home secretary, will travel to Dover on Thursday to assess preparations for Brexit on a visit that will highlight the possible disruption to trade and passenger traffic on both sides of the Channel in the event of a “no deal” Brexit. RecommendedMr Hunt warned on Tuesday that the risk of such an outcome was “increasing by the day” and that the European Commission had to abandon the idea that Britain would eventually “blink”. “This is just a profound misunderstanding of us as a nation,” he said, telling the Evening Standard: “France and Germany have to send a strong signal to the commission that we need to negotiate a pragmatic and sensible outcome that protects jobs on both sides of the Channel. “If it became harder for European businesses to access finance, that is far from trivial,” he added. “If [the City] became a low-tax, low-regulation, offshoot fully outside the EU, it would find a way to thrive. But for European businesses, the impact would be profound.” Mrs May’s diplomatic effort — scheduled in-between her summer holidays in Italy and Switzerland — is aimed at persuading the EU to adopt a more flexible negotiating stance at a crucial summit of EU leaders in Salzburg in September. Unless Mrs May can show that her proposed Chequers compromise plan has gained traction in Salzburg, she will face a torrid confrontation with Eurosceptics at the UK Conservative party conference, which will be held the first week of October. Asked about the Fort de Brégançon meeting, a French official said Paris would insist that Mr Barnier should not be undermined by parallel discussions between EU heads of state. “They are asking to see us, we will listen of course,” the official said. “But we will also reiterate some truths about the process.” Read again May to meet Macron over France's approach to Brexit : https://ift.tt/2OybYQ6WARSAW (Reuters) - Poland said on Tuesday that the risk of Britain dropping out of the European Union with no agreement on post-Brexit ties “cannot be ruled out” and it would spike if London and the bloc fail to agree details in October. FILE PHOTO: Anti-Brexit demonstrators wave EU and Union flags opposite the Houses of Parliament, in London, Britain, June 19, 2018. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls Britain’s political meltdown and disagreements with the bloc over issues including the Irish border cast an increasingly long shadow over chances for a broad deal to regulate their relationship from day one after Brexit, which is due next March. A no-deal Brexit is widely expected to sow chaos for people and businesses alike as there would be little clarity over what replaces more than four decades of collaboration on everything from food safety standards to airline regulations. “The European Council sitting ... to be held in October, 2018, will be a key moment,” the Polish government said in a statement referring to a meeting of EU leaders planned in Brussels. Talks with British Prime Minister Theresa May will be followed by discussions between the remaining 27 leaders on whether they find acceptable whatever deal emerges with London by then. “If there is no binding agreements, the risk of a fiasco of talks will rise significantly,” Warsaw said, adding it would then move to safeguard the interests of its entrepreneurs and citizens, of which there are about one million living in Britain. Social discontent with workers arriving in masses from the poorer eastern EU states like Poland in search for better-paid jobs in Britain played a big role in the 2016 Brexit referendum. EU immigration to Britain, including from Poland, has fallen since. “EU net migration continues to add to the UK population with around 100,000 more EU citizens coming to the UK than leaving,” the country’s Office for National Statistics said this month. “The estimated number of EU citizens coming to the UK ‘looking for work’ continued to decrease over the last year and the number coming to the UK for a definite job has remained stable.’ Reporting by Gabriela Baczynska; Editing by Richard Balmforth
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] Britain's doctors believe Brexit will harm the NHS and are calling for a second referendum7/31/2018 Getty
The British Medical Association, which represents 160,000 medics and students, on Thursday gave its backing to the "Final Say" campaign run by the Independent news site, which has collected nearly 400,000 signatures from voters in favour of a fresh referendum. The BMA tweeted that it was "imperative" that the public has a vote on any final proposed Brexit deal, warning that the challenges posed by Brexit to the medical industry are "considerable" despite some recent progress in negotiations. The BMA's members voted overwhelmingly in favour of a second referendum at a recent vote, and the Royal College of Nursing, which represents around half a million nurses and midwives, has also backed the idea. It comes as a survey published on Tuesday found that UK doctors believe Brexit will devastate both the NHS and the nation's health. A poll of nearly 1,200 doctors published in the BMJ Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health found that 83% believe leaving the EU will hurt the NHS. When asked how serious the impact of Brexit on the NHS will be — with 10 being the best and 0 being the worst imaginable — the average response was 2. "Doctors are amongst the best placed people to understand the impact of political decisions on the NHS," said the study's lead author Dr Kate Mandeville, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. "On Brexit, their opinion is very clear: Brexit is bad for the nation’s health." The BMA has been particularly critical of the government's failure to offer any clarity on immigration after Brexit, because the medical sector is heavily dependent on immigrant nurses, doctors, and support staff. There is already a dramatic shortage of NHS staff, which appears to have been exacerbated by a drop-off in EU migration since the Brexit referendum in 2016. Quarterly figures released by regulator NHS Improvement in February for showed that NHS England trusts "employ 1.1 million whole-time-equivalent staff but that they have 100,000 vacancies." Join the conversation about this story » NOW WATCH: North Korean defector: Kim Jong Un 'is a terrorist' See Also: SEE ALSO: Theresa May warns Conservative MPs to back her deal or risk delaying Brexit Read again Britain's doctors believe Brexit will harm the NHS and are calling for a second referendum : https://ift.tt/2v1wyjG
According to a report from The Times on Tuesday, UK officials told Brussels that "thousands" of European investment funds will be under threat if the EU insists on a hardline approach to the City, something favoured by the EU's French contingent, which sees Brexit as a way to strengthen Paris as a financial centre. UK firms currently sell thousands of investment funds to clients in EU countries, while EU firms sell their funds to UK customers under financial passporting rules. Luxembourg is a particular hub for such business. Under the EU's current stance, UK companies would lose the ability to sell funds into the EU. This has led British negotiators to argue that the reverse would also be true: EU firms would be unable to sell into the UK. The Times reports that the strategy was "designed to highlight the damage that could be caused if Britain fails to get a special deal for the City." "This was not intended as a threat. Rather, we wanted to set out what both sides could lose if we don’t get a good deal, and it was received in that spirit," a source within the government told the newspaper. The report comes after the EU's hardline chief negotiator Michel Barnier appeared to soften his stance on the future relationship last week. Barnier had previously been in opposition to Prime Minister Theresa May's "advanced equivalence" plan, as he believed it threatened the bloc's "decision-making autonomy." Under the government's proposed new relationship Britain would sign up to a system of so-called "equivalence." The government said it will seek to improve on existing requirements for equivalence of rules between the EU and outside countries. Barnier and other officials believed that this would mean the UK would be able to control how much access it had to EU financial markets However, after British officials clarified that this was not part of the plan and that power to grant access to those markets would remain in the hands of Brussels, Barnier is believed to have climbed down from that position, according to a Financial Times report. "Last week we held positive discussions with the European Commission on our proposal for a pragmatic new arrangement for financial services after we leave the EU," a Treasury spokesman cited by the Times said, adding that negotiators found "common ground in recognising both the EU’s and Britain’s desire to have control over their own decision-making. They also recognised "the need for bilateral dialogue and cooperation to reflect the deeply integrated nature of UK and EU financial markets," the spokesman added. Read again The City of London issued a stark warning about the future of European finance after Brexit — and the EU is listening : https://ift.tt/2Ozyb06LONDON (Reuters) - A no-deal Brexit would seriously damage the car industry in Britain and the European Union by raising costs and sowing chaos for carmakers and consumers alike, the head of Britain’s car industry warned on Tuesday. FILE PHOTO: Workers assemble cars at the plant for the Mini range of cars in Cowley, near Oxford, Britain June 20, 2016. REUTERS/Leon Neal/Pool/File Photo With less than eight months until Britain is due to exit the EU, Prime Minister Theresa May has yet to find a proposal to maintain economic ties with the bloc that pleases both sides of her divided party and is acceptable to negotiators in Brussels. May has stepped up precautionary planning for a so-called “no-deal” Brexit that would see the world’s fifth largest economy crash out of the EU on March 29, 2019, a step that could spook financial markets and dislocate trade flows across Europe and beyond. Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), said carmakers were increasingly concerned about the lack of clarity around the manner of Britain’s departure from the EU. That has raised the prospect of Britain leaving with no deal and falling back on World Trade Organisation rules that could leave British car exporters facing EU import tariffs of around 10 percent. “No deal... is just not an option. It would be seriously damaging to the industry not just in the UK but in Europe as well,” Hawes told reporters as he presented SMMT’s mid-year update on British car production. At stake is the future of one of Britain’s few manufacturing success stories since the 1980s - a car industry employing over 850,000 people and generating annual turnover of $110 billion. Much of the industry is owned by foreign companies. The world’s biggest carmakers including Toyota, BMW and Ford have urged Britain to ensure that they can import and export without hindrance after Brexit. Supporters of Brexit admit there may be some short-term pain for Britain’s $2.9 trillion economy, but that long-term it will prosper when cut free from the EU, which they cast as a failing German-dominated experiment in European integration. “NO DEAL”?Under the current timetable, both London and Brussels hope to get a final Brexit deal in October to give enough time to ratify it by exit day. However, the potential for major political upheaval remains, with May’s minority government facing a series of make-or-break moments in the Brexit process over coming months. She must find a way to strike a deal with the EU, which has already rejected her preferred plan on trade, then sell that deal to her deeply fractured Conservative Party, before putting it to a vote in parliament. Failure at any of those three hurdles could cost her job and thrust the United Kingdom into crisis. In an attempt to rally support for May’s proposals, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt visits Paris and Vienna this week. “I will be explaining to my counterparts in Paris and Vienna that it is time for the EU to engage with our proposals, or we potentially face the prospect of a no-deal by accident, which would be very challenging for both the UK and EU,” Hunt said. Opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn could come under pressure at its annual party conference in September to agree to support a referendum on any deal that May can secure, the Guardian newspaper reported. There is deep concern in boardrooms about the prospect of Britain leaving the bloc without a deal, or with a deal that would silt up the arteries of trade. That could be highly damaging for a car industry which is dependent on the speedy movement of huge numbers of parts across borders. The average car, for example, has about 30,000 parts. Confidence among British consumers and businesses remains stuck well below levels before Britons voted in 2016 by a narrow majority for Brexit, surveys showed on Tuesday, two days before an expected interest rate increase by the Bank of England. The Financial Times reported that the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, had softened his opposition to May’s Brexit plan for financial services after the UK acknowledged Brussels would have ultimate control over the City of London’s access to EU markets. British car output in the first six months of 2018 fell by an annual 3.3 percent to 834,402, with disappointing domestic demand cancelling out strong exports, SMMT said. Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Mark Heinrich
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There were a few "Amens" coming from the U.K. after Italy's far-right deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, reportedly told The Sunday Times that "there is no objectivity or good faith from the European side" when it comes to the bargaining over the terms of the U.K.’s exit from the European Union. He urged U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May to hold out for a better deal and prepare to walk away. Salvini represents a populist euroskeptic party, hardly a mainstream European voice. And yet his words were music to the ears of those who suspect that the EU is out to swindle Britain as it negotiates to leave the bloc, and those who welcome any crack in the EU's united front, no matter how small, as a sign they can still get their way. There are two kinds of hardline Brexiters now. One is hopeful but deluded, the other realistic but destructive. The hopefuls argue that while the EU stayed united when it came to talking about the divorce payment or EU citizens' rights, once the talk turns to car sales and the intricacies of supply chains, the different economic and political interests of member countries will assert themselves and a deal will be possible. There is, in fact, almost no chance of the EU's united front crumbling now. Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier poured buckets of cold water on May's post-Brexit trading proposal, increasing the likelihood that there will be no deal at all, never mind a cake-eating one. Barnier may have seemed more conciliatory lately when it comes to access for London's financial services industry. But he hasn’t conceded anything, really; London will be treated like New York and other financial centers, which gain access only once the EU has certified the "equivalence" of their regulatory systems to the EU's. That's a long way from the U.K.'s demands for "mutual recognition" of each other's independently drafted rules. The EU's clear preference is to conclude a withdrawal treaty that paves the way for a transition period and a new negotiated trade relationship. But its bigger goals are preserving the unity of the bloc, the integrity of the single market and the sanctity of the 1998 Good Friday agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland. While the U.K. could help motivate talks by offering more payments into EU coffers (something Brexiters would find anathema) or a more generous deal for EU migrants, none of these things are tradable against the market access the U.K. wants. Financial services are important, but the industry is not the carrot, or the stick, that Brexiters once assumed. In terms of trade, it is true that the EU stands to lose from a no-deal Brexit; the U.K. is its most important trading partner. But the hit to individual EU countries is much less than the hit to the U.K. A study last year calculated the share of gross domestic product of each EU country tied up in trade flows with the U.K., and vice versa; only Ireland comes close to what Britain has at stake (10 percent of its GDP is tied up in trade flows with Britain). The EU is happy to prove the deluded hopefuls wrong and drive the hard bargain it has always intended. But it's the other group of Brexiters it should worry about more. QuicktakeQ&A: What a No-Deal Brexit Means They’re the ones who have taken accurate stock of the EU arsenal and the U.K. political terrain. They are resigned to retreating, but prefer to blow up everything along the way. They'll take a no-deal Brexit over May's compromise plan any day. Their goal is now to make sure that the blame falls on the EU, May, the Remainers and anyone other than those who voted for Brexit. They plan to rally the resentful at the next election. British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt alluded to this last week when he told a German audience that the approach being pursued by EU negotiators risks a no-deal Brexit happening "by accident," and that this would "change British public attitudes to Europe for a generation." Salvini, too, knows the power of anti-EU sentiment. But does Barnier, a former French foreign minister and pan-European enthusiast? In seeking to extract more than the U.K. can reasonably give for gains the EU doesn't really need, the EU risks triggering a collapse in negotiations for which it will share the blame. Barnier may have a plan to defeat the deluded hopefuls, but if he doesn't help get a deal, he risks entrenching anti-EU sentiment even further. To be fair, he doesn't have much operating room — EU members and the European Parliament still need to approve the final withdrawal agreement. But the EU has long experience in creative fudging when principles and rules clash with political reality. Just ask any country that has violated EU rules on fiscal discipline. What could Barnier do? He could signal a willingness to give the U.K. more time to negotiate by extending the two-year deadline that makes the divorce official on March 29, 2019. He could work toward an alternative solution to the fiendishly tricky Irish border problem (there are no easy or perfect solutions, but there are ideas with legs). He could at least work with May to modify her plan for a free-trade area for goods. The withdrawal agreement is 80 percent concluded; the remaining 20 percent should be doable. But even if the end result isn't an agreement, Barnier's bigger goal should be to show British voters, and more importantly all euroskeptics, that the EU makes a good-faith effort to win their trust and their trade. The rest is up to them. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. 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