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Your usage has been flagged as a violation of our terms of service. For inquiries related to this message please contact support. For sales inquiries, please visit http://www.bloomberg.com/professional/request-demo If you believe this to be in error, please confirm below that you are not a robot by clicking "I'm not a robot" below.Please make sure your browser supports JavaScript and cookies and that you are not blocking them from loading. For more information you can review the Terms of Service and Cookie Policy.Block reference ID:Read again UK Lawmakers Ask BOE, Treasury for Assessment of Brexit Deal : https://ift.tt/2tKaUQf[unable to retrieve full-text content] 270 Days to GoToday in Brexit: Prime Minister Theresa May will gather her Cabinet this week and force them into a decision about what Brexit will actually mean. We’ve had showdowns before, but this one feels a bit more dramatic. Two years since the referendum and with just 16 weeks to go until the U.K. and the European Union are meant to sign off on their final divorce deal, May will gather her Cabinet at her Chequers countryside retreat to call time on the warring that has characterized her administration since day one. The shape of a deal will influence business decisions, and how easy trade remains with the U.K.’s biggest partner. It will also shape whether the U.K. ends up tumbling out of the EU without a deal – the worst-case scenario for business. May’s career and that of some Cabinet rivals is on the line. With time running out and May’s push toward keeping closer ties enraging Brexit-backers, two scenarios appear to be gaining the most traction: a soft Brexit or the no-deal divorce, the hardest of all splits. EU officials at a summit last week agreed to step up preparations for the latter, with one European prime minister saying in private he now saw the chances of a messy breakup at 50-50. May’s Brexit negotiator, Olly Robbins, the man charged with bringing difficult messages back from Brussels, has told ministers that they won’t get the “bespoke” trade deal they want, the Times reports. Instead they will have to settle for a Norway-style deal that grants single-market access – but includes accepting EU rules – or a plain trade deal that would harm business and cause problems for the Irish border. Chief Brexit hardliner Jacob Rees-Mogg already smells betrayal. In the Telegraph this morning, he calls on on May to honor her commitment to a clean break. With just nine months to go, May’s now habitual way of problem-solving – a crisis followed by a fudge that is soon revealed to be unsustainable – probably won’t work anymore. Still, the policy paper she is planning to publish next week after the Cabinet meeting may be less definitive than so-called White Papers tend to be. “May’s instincts will be to keep everyone on board. This probably points to the White Paper containing a menu of options rather than a definitive blueprint,” argues Eurasia’s Mij Rahman. “While that would not ease the EU’s growing exasperation, it would have the advantage of giving the government some crucial wriggle room when negotiations reach their crunch point this autumn.” Reminder: the EU set out its negotiating position on the future relationship in March and has been calling for the U.K. to do the same ever since. Reminder II: Whatever the U.K. sets out now as its negotiating position on the future relationship can be undone after Brexit day (or so says the EU), when trade talks get going in earnest. Today’s Must-Reads
Brexit in BriefThird Way | Remember “Max Fac” and the New Customs Partnership? Those were the two options recently debated by ministers in a proxy war between the pro- and anti-Brexit camps in the Cabinet. Now a third option is on the table, the BBC reports. NHS Braces | Hospitals are planning for a no-deal Brexit, the head of the National Health Service said on Sunday. “There’s extensive work under way between the Department of Health, other parts of government, the life sciences industry, the pharma companies,” NHS England Chief Executive Simon Stevens told the BBC. “Nobody’s pretending this is a desirable situation, but if that’s where we get to it will not have been unforeseen.” Extended Transition? | It’s a recurring theme – could the transition period that’s designed to give business and government time to prepare for post-Brexit trading rules be extended beyond December 2020? Business Secretary Greg Clark dropped a big hint on Sunday, saying any decision should be “guided by the evidence.” EU officials have also discussed it. Hardline Brexit-backers hate the idea, but pro-Brexit Trade Minister Liam Fox has said it’s something he could live with. Labour’s Brexit | Momentum, the left-wing grassroots group that helped secure Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party leadership, is pressuring him to push for a referendum on the final Brexit deal, the Financial Times writes. Corbyn, who has so far opposed a second vote, will also face pressure this week from union Unite, Labour’s biggest financial backer. A poll ahead of the annual conference found a majority of members support giving voters a final say on the agreement. Is Luxembourg Actually Big Enough? | More than 30 finance firms have so far decided to seek a new home in Luxembourg to prepare for post-Brexit restrictions. That’s putting pressure on office space and forcing new developments to the outskirts, Stephanie Bodoni reports. Sterling Denial | RBC Europe reckons pound trading indicates that investors are expecting Brexit to be delayed or called off. “As best we can tell, and supported by anecdotal evidence, markets appear to attach a surprisingly high probability to the whole Brexit process being delayed or even never happening,” chief currency strategist Adam Cole said. That means traders are under-estimating the risks, he says. Something to add? Missed yesterday’s Bulletin? Like the Brexit Bulletin? Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. [unable to retrieve full-text content] LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Theresa Mayâs advisers have come up with a new proposal for handling customs with the EU after Brexit as lawmakers in her party bicker before a crunch meeting of senior ministers on Friday. With less than nine months left before the country leaves the European Union, little is yet clear about how trade will flow as May is still trying to produce a customs plan that her divided Conservative Party can agree on. May, who leads a minority government dependent on the support of a small Northern Irish party, has ruled out staying in the EU customs union, which groups EU members in a duty-free area where there is a common import tariff for non-EU goods. So far, Mayâs advisers have come up with two options, neither of which have the full support of her party. As EU negotiators await the long-delayed proposal from London, the BBC reported that British officials have come up with a third model, though no details were immediately available and Mayâs office declined to comment on the report. May will gather the squabbling ministers at her Chequers country residence on Friday for an âaway-dayâ aimed at agreeing the contents of a âwhite paperâ policy document. Brussels has pre-emptively poured scorn on both concepts raised so far by the government. Under one, Britain would collect tariffs on imports from outside the bloc on the EUâs behalf. The other would implement a technology-based plan. CLIFF EDGE?Under the current timetable, both London and Brussels are working towards a final Brexit deal in October to give enough time to ratify it by Brexit day in March 2019. In a sign of just how worried big business is getting, Siemens, Airbus and BMW have publicly cautioned Britain in the past month that their businesses will be hurt by a disorderly Brexit. A record 75 percent of major British companies are now pessimistic about Brexit, a survey showed on Monday, highlighting weak investment and waning expectations for sales. When asked about business worries by ambassadors, British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson was reported by The Daily Telegraph newspaper to have quipped: âF*** businessâ. A spokesman disputed that he had used bad language. May has so far shown some skill at keeping her dual negotiation with the EU and her lawmakers on track, though the 30-year schism inside her party over Europe helped to sink the premierships of Margaret Thatcher, John Major and David Cameron. More than 30 Conservative lawmakers have signed a letter demanding May âget toughâ in negotiations. âOur departure must be absolute,â the lawmakers said. âWe must not remain entangled with the EUâs institutions if this restricts our ability to exercise our sovereignty as an independent nation. Anything less will be a weakening of our democracy. Britain must stand firm.â Lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg, who heads a pro-Brexit faction, pressed May on the type of Brexit she should seek, setting out what kind of deals lawmakers would reject. âAny attempt by the EU to impose its laws and Court on the UK, either directly or indirectly, must be rejected,â he wrote in the Daily Telegraph. The article drew a rebuke from Alan Duncan, a Foreign Office minister, who said he was being insolent. âLecturing and threatening the PM is just too much,â Duncan said on Twitter. âRisks debasing govt, party, country & himself. PM must be given maximum latitude & backing.â (This story has bene refiled to remove extraneous word from first paragraph.) Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; editing by Michael Holden and David Stamp Brexit’s grasp on the pound is unyielding. Any pick up in U.K. services data on July 4, following stronger-than-expected growth figures on Friday, could give the currency a boost by lifting bets on an August rate hike. Yet with Prime Minister Theresa May meeting Angela Merkel on July 5, followed by the U.K. cabinet sitting down a day later to hash out details on the future relationship with the European Union, Brexit news is always around the corner for the pound. “Data will continue to be crucial as a short-term driver for sterling,” said Viraj Patel, a strategist at ING Groep NV. While a rally back to $1.40 is still possible this year, that’s “more of a post-summer surge and assumes a benign Brexit outcome.” The pound weakened below $1.32 on Monday after surging unexpectedly on Friday on higher U.K. growth numbers and hawkish comments from the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Andy Haldane. The British currency still saw its worst quarter since the Brexit referendum in June 2016. Part of it was to do with dollar strength, but domestic political wrangling, businesses growing gloomy and the bitter battle with the EU weighed on the pound. The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said on Friday time was running out with “huge and serious” gaps still remaining, while European Council President Donald Tusk made a “last call” for progress. Even with these risks, volatility in sterling has remained subdued. One-year implied volatility for sterling-dollar was at around 8.2 percent on Monday, compared to the annual average of 8.5 percent and well-below the year’s high of 9.3 percent. The low volatility seems “hard to reconcile” given the wide range of possible Brexit outcomes, said Adam Cole, chief currency strategist at RBC Europe Ltd. “As best we can tell, and supported by anecdotal evidence, markets appear to attach a surprisingly high probability to the whole Brexit process being delayed or even never happening,” London-based Cole said. Given this view, “it is not difficult to make a case for risk in sterling being under-priced, and that is indeed our bias.” Hello. Here's your morning briefing: A third way?The BBC understands that Downing Street has come up with a third model for the customs union after Brexit - after ministers failed to agree on either of the first two put forward. The intractable problem of customs is central to the future of trade and a significant part of finding a solution to the Irish border problem. It's even prompted physical acts of destruction from at least one minister. We don't yet know the details of this third model, but given that the other two - more on them here - seem to be politically or practically undeliverable, all hopes will be riding on it. The whole cabinet gets together at the prime minister's country retreat, Chequers, on Friday to discuss it - and, Theresa May hopes, back it. Last week, European Council President Donald Tusk issued a "last call" to the UK to agree a position if a Brexit deal is to be done by the October deadline. As BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg puts it, if Mrs May can't end the fight this week- by picking a winning side or forcing a persuasive compromise - the EU may call time. High Street suffering goes onThe UK High Street's woes are well-documented. BBC 5 Live's Wake Up To Money has been tracking shop closures and retail administrations, and the latest figures make for grim reading. Nearly 22,000 jobs have either been lost or are set to go this year alone. About 1,200 shops run by major chains have either shut or are at risk of closure. The BBC's Jon Kelly has looked closely at the death of just one, a Poundworld in Northumberland, and the lives that have been affected by it. Get news from the BBC in your inbox, each weekday morning Redrawing Mexico's political mapLeft-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador is heading for a landslide victory in Mexico's presidential election. As our what-you-need-to-know guide explains, it's a political earthquake in a country where almost all voters alive have never known a leader who wasn't from either the Institutional Revolutionary Party or the conservative National Action Party. Sunday's election followed one of Mexico's deadliest campaigns in decades with more than 130 political candidates and party workers killed. Mr López Obrador - find out more about him here - was the candidate most critical of Donald Trump and he has vowed to make the US president "see reason". As the results rolled in, Mr Trump tweeted his congratulations. How green are festivals?By Reality Check team When people are rushing between headliners at festivals, the last thing on their minds might be how to recycle their food containers, or where they put their reusable cup. But, with more and more focus on going green, festivals across the UK are pledging to cut back on plastics, leftover waste and even glitter. So, what are the biggest environmental impacts of festivals and what's being done to combat them? What the papers sayAnother week, another crunch Brexit moment, and the topic once again dominates the papers. In the Daily Telegraph, backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg warns Theresa May she will face an open Tory rebellion that risks the collapse of her government unless she delivers the Brexit "she herself has promised". The i says hardline Brexiteers like him have been told they will have to topple her to prevent any deal that keeps trade aligned with the EU. The Times speculates that on past form the PM's preference may be to seek refuge in fudge, but it feels clarity cannot be avoided forever. Elsewhere, both the Daily Mail and the Daily Mirror launch campaigns to "save the High Street". The former places much blame on "crippling" business rates, while the latter says a different vision altogether for our town centres, less focused on retail, may be needed. Daily digestNHS app Will it cut down wasted appointments? Moorland fires Blaze could take a week to extinguish Russia's win A nation united in disbelief Split Cheryl and Liam go their separate ways If you see one thing todaySimple steps that could help you live to 100 If you listen to one thing todayIf you read one thing todayCatcalls: 'Let me be your Harvey Weinstein' Sign up for a morning briefing direct to your phone Lookahead15:30 Theresa May will make a statement in the Commons updating MPs on progress made at last week's EU leaders' summit Today Wimbledon gets going with both Serena Williams Roger Federer in action On this day2001 Barry George is sentenced to life in prison for murdering TV presenter Jill Dando From elsewherePlastic-eating bacteria discovered by student could help solve global pollution crisis (Independent) What Love Island really says about the world we live in (Herald Scotland) What it costs to be smuggled across the US border (New York Times) Do England really have an easy route to the World Cup final? (Sunday Mirror) Read again News Daily: New Brexit option and Mexico election landslide : https://ift.tt/2MFI8qZIn Brexit Britain, the breadwinners are packing up to move—and naturally their families are going with them. Enrollment at international schools in the U.K. has slumped since the 2016 referendum, while across the channel schools catering to expats are seeing a surge in applications. “Social infrastructure has been treated as a secondary consideration in Brexit, and for most people it’s actually the first,” said Nicholas Tonkes, a consultant at Oliver Wyman who’s studied the topic. “That shoe is beginning to drop.” Shifting class sizes hint at larger changes set to ripple across Britain as the deadline for leaving the European Union approaches. With the U.K. threatening to quit the single market and the customs union, businesses are starting to move people and resources to mainland Europe. Bigger steps could be in store: Airbus SE said last month it would reconsider investments in the U.K., where it has 14,000 employees, unless Britain and the EU strike a deal. The finance industry alone may shift as many as 35,000 jobs outside Britain in a hard Brexit, Oliver Wyman estimates. That number could increase over time if the continent’s role as a financial center grows, the consultant said in a February report. “Brexit has definitely affected enrollment,” said Mary Langford, director of admissions at London’s Dwight School, which has seen a decline since 2015. “There is a lot of uncertainty for many industries, and I don’t think families are coming to London in the same waves.” Schools are taking steps to adapt. The Collège Français Bilingue de Londres and Deutsche Schule London, for example, each surveyed parents in recent months to gauge their Brexit-related plans. A spokeswoman for CFBL said that while many parents weren’t sure if they’d stay or leave at the time of the survey, the school is nearly at capacity for next year. DSL didn’t have an immediate response to requests for comment. Enrollment at a group of U.K. international schools tracked by ISC Research has fallen by more than 10 percent since before the Brexit vote, while annual fees have increased about 9 percent to 14,000 pounds ($18,480). The exodus from Britain’s schools is leading to a corresponding increase in demand in Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley have already lined up school places in Frankfurt before moving employees to the German financial capital, according to two people with knowledge of the situation who asked not to be identified because the plans are private. Other banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., are looking at doing likewise, a person said. Spokesmen for the New York-based lenders declined to comment. Marymount, an international school just outside Paris, has seen a 10 percent to 15 percent increase in applicants for the coming year from two years ago, according to Kate des Places, the external relations director. The International School of Paris had registered a 50 percent jump in new students from the same period last year, according to school head Simon Murray. “We’ve seen a big spike in individual applications and have had a lot of contact from institutions in London in particular,” said Murray. “One thing that’s very clear: they will not be able to bring their key people with them unless they can guarantee a high quality of education.” Read more: Brexit’s ‘Death by a Thousand Cuts’ Has Companies on Edge Both ISP and Marymount held information sessions for parents at banks and other companies in London in recent months. In February, ISP officials met with the European Banking Authority, which has committed to moving to Paris following Brexit, Murray said. The European Medicines Agency, which employs about 900 people, is also uprooting, from London to Amsterdam. Schools on the continent are starting up or expanding to absorb the demand. ISP is opening a third campus in Paris this September, creating at least 300 additional places on top of the 700 it already has. In Dublin, the first school offering the International Baccalaureate for kids of all ages is opening in September, with 800 places. There may still be a shortage of suitable schools in some cities, said Harriet Plyler, the editor of The Good Schools Guide International. “No one wants their kids to be part of an experiment, which is in effect what all new schools are,” she said. Whether the dip in U.K. enrollments lasts or worsens may depend on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. Even now some schools in London are expanding. Southbank International School, which has campuses in Hampstead, Kensington and Westminster, purchased the BBC’s old headquarters in March. A new campus will open this fall and boost capacity to about 1,000 students from 800 currently. For some parents, the thinning ranks at London’s international schools has been a blessing. Gabrielle, a mother of three girls, moved to London from Hong Kong in January and got all of them into Ecole Marie D’Orliac, part of the French Lycee. “I applied to several schools and was surprised to get so many positive answers,” she said, asking that her last name not be used to maintain her privacy. “I think this is due to Brexit, and I was told this wouldn’t have been possible a few years ago as many schools were full.” — With assistance by Viren Vaghela |
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November 2018
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